Five Data Dimensions Perspective on BTC Price Bottom in USD: Opportunities Hidden Below $75,000

When BTC prices in USD fell to above $75,700 in early February, causing panic across the entire crypto market, a question lingered in every investor’s mind—where is the bottom? The network-wide average cost basis shows $55,900, yet multiple indicators tell different stories. Through five key data dimensions, we interpret the true signals hidden in BTC’s current USD price position.

On-Chain Cost Reveal: BTC Price in USD at a Relative High

According to the latest on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s cost distribution exhibits a multi-layered structure. Short-term holders (STH) have an average cost basis of $95,400, reflecting the purchase prices of recent entrants over the past few months; the actual on-market traders’ average holding cost is $87,300, while the median transaction cost in the secondary market is $80,500.

The most critical data point is the network-wide average cost—$55,900. This means that when BTC’s USD price drops below $80,500, your purchase price is lower than most recent traders; if it falls below $55,900, you’ve hit a new all-time low in your buying price. Historically, during the 2022 bear market, BTC dipped below this average cost, but whether it will break below again under current macro liquidity and spot ETF support remains to be seen.

Market Sentiment Panorama: How Participants View the Bottom

Foresight News conducted an investor confidence survey at the end of January, collecting 1,189 responses when BTC was around $84,000. The survey shows that 45.6% of respondents believe the 2026 bottom will be in the $75,000–$85,000 range, while 30.2% are bearish and expect $60,000–$75,000.

Regarding future market outlooks, 44% lean toward believing 2026 will be a bear market, while 35.3% hold a different view, and 20.6% are on the sidelines. In terms of strategies, nearly half (47.2%) prefer dollar-cost averaging and long-term holding; 25% plan to exit to stablecoins for yield; 17.5% seek opportunities in altcoins.

Current holdings are also telling: 31% have nearly fully exited but are looking for bottoming opportunities; 29% remain on the sidelines without adding; 21% have started accumulating. This reflects a market with both steadfast bottom-finders and cautious observers.

ahr999 Indicator’s Accumulation Signal: Rarely Seen Low-Price Zone

The ahr999 indicator, created by Weibo user ahr999, assesses BTC’s deviation from its long-term growth trend. It combines the 200-day dollar-cost averaging (DCA) cost with an estimated exponential growth valuation. Historically, below 0.45 is an excellent buy zone, 0.45–1.2 is suitable for DCA, and above 1.2 indicates high prices.

On February 1, 2026, the ahr999 indicator first dropped below the critical threshold of 0.45—this is the first time in 839 days since October 2023. This signal indicates that BTC’s USD price at current levels is significantly below its long-term growth expectation, similar to extreme lows at the end of the 2023 bear market.

Interpreting the indicator, if ahr999 remains below 0.45, investors could consider deploying in tranches below $76,000, and when the indicator rises above 1.2, take profits by reducing positions. However, this strategy should be confirmed with volume to avoid false breakouts.

CVDD Model’s Hard Bottom Support: $45,000 Market Floor

Renowned analyst Willy Woo’s CVDD model offers another dimension of bottom assessment. Its core logic is that when Bitcoin moves from early holders to recent high-price buyers, new holders evaluate these coins at higher baseline prices. The frequent transfer of BTC to new addresses by whales also signals strong conviction.

Historical review shows BTC USD prices have never touched the red line—representing the absolute bottom. Currently, the CVDD hard bottom is around $45,000. The yellow zone on the chart (areas where BTC has previously dipped below in past cycles) is now between $53,000 and $56,000, aligning closely with the network’s average cost basis.

Top Accumulators’ Cost Line: Institutional Price Anchor

Leading whale accumulator Strategy, as of early February, holds assets worth about $54.2 billion, managing 712,647 BTC, with an average cost of approximately $76,040. This figure often serves as a key market reference—when BTC USD drops below this average, it can trigger institutional bottom-fishing.

Placeholder Fund partner Chris previously highlighted the $74,000–$76,000 range as a critical price zone, corresponding to the institutional cost basis. This range currently provides significant support.

Multi-Dimensional Data Synthesis: From Bottom Expectations to Practical Actions

Integrating these five data dimensions, the bottom zone for BTC USD shows a layered structure: institutional cost line ($74,000–$76,000) → network average cost ($55,900) → CVDD hard bottom ($45,000).

Currently, BTC is at about $68,400 (as of February 17), just a step away from the institutional cost line at $74,000. Multiple indicators suggest: ahr999 has entered a historically rare low-price zone, investor sentiment shows extreme fear, and on-chain data indicates increased large transfers. All these hint at potential opportunities in this phase.

However, it’s important to remember that all bottom predictions are only references. Historical experience and current market liquidity influence the actual bottom level. For retail investors, deploying in tranches below $76,000, dollar-cost averaging, and long-term holding may be more prudent than trying to pinpoint the exact bottom. Monitoring whether ahr999 remains below 0.45 and observing whale transfer behaviors can help verify the bottom’s authenticity.