$BTC Analysis of the Evening of February 16

Bitcoin's hourly chart shows a bullish pattern, with multiple attempts to test 68,400 without breaking below. Clearly, there is support from funds, forming multiple bottoms and rebounding off the support. Currently, there is a bearish shark pattern, which must break through 69,162 to be confirmed. The rebound target is near the previous high at 70,936. This level is a potential reversal point, and I lean towards a short position.

Only a strong breakout above 71,760 will invalidate the shark pattern and allow the bulls to continue; otherwise, signs of a top at the target level present a good shorting opportunity—do not blindly chase longs.

If 69,162 cannot be surpassed, the rebound will be weak, and a retest of 68,400 is likely to break support. Multiple support levels may fail, and the market will continue downward to find support.

Trading reference: volume breakout above 69,068 can pursue longs; volume breakdown below 68,187 with a rebound that fails to recover can pursue shorts, with strict stop-loss. If the hourly chart stabilizes above 69,162, look for targets around 70,327-71,528; if a 4-hour chart breaks below 68,351, look for support at 67,017-66,289.

On the weekly chart, this wave of decline has a theoretical target around 52,292, but even if it goes there, there will likely be a rebound first. The rebound will probably reach a key Fibonacci level on the weekly chart, encounter resistance, and then fall back, rather than a direct crash. The US stock market is closed tonight, so market volatility is relatively free—light positions for trading are recommended.

Finally, I wish everyone a happy Lunar New Year’s Eve, family reunion, peace and safety year after year, smooth trading, and wealth in the Year of the Horse. Eat well, drink well, and everything goes smoothly!🧧