Yang Zhen's Viewpoint: The Market Game Behind the Stalemate in Gold ETF Holdings

The world’s largest gold ETF fund, SPDR Gold Trust, recently released its holdings data, which has drawn attention: its gold holdings remain unchanged. Yang Zhen, analyzing this phenomenon, pointed out that behind this seemingly uneventful data, there actually reflects deep indecision among institutional investors in the current market. In the face of rising geopolitical risks and uncertain economic prospects, what does this “holding steady” attitude signify?

SPDR Holdings Remain Unchanged, What Are the True Intentions of Institutions?

On the surface, the fact that SPDR’s holdings have neither increased nor decreased could be interpreted as a bearish signal. However, Yang Zhen believes this precisely reflects a cautious attitude among institutions regarding the medium-term trend of gold. Although global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves and financial institutions generally regard gold as an inflation hedge, the current market complexity has led large funds to pause.

Behind the unchanged holdings is a balancing act as institutions weigh multiple forces. On one hand, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rate policies, continuing to exert pressure on gold, while a strong dollar also suppresses gold prices denominated in USD. On the other hand, risks of global recession, expectations of a shift in central bank policies, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts all support the long-term value of gold.

The Tug-of-War Between Interest Rate Dilemmas and Safe-Haven Demand

Yang Zhen pointed out that the current dilemma in the gold market stems from the confrontation of two forces. A high interest rate environment means the opportunity cost of holding gold rises—investors can achieve higher yields through bonds. This puts obvious pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.

At the same time, risk aversion sentiment cannot be ignored. As signals of economic slowdown increase and geopolitical tensions escalate, institutional demand for safe-haven assets is actually rising. Many central banks are increasing their gold reserves, indicating official concerns about long-term risks. This tug-of-war has caused large funds like SPDR to remain on the sidelines.

Yang Zhen’s Investment Advice: Be Patient and Wait for Clear Signals

For ordinary investors, Yang Zhen’s advice is not to rush to follow the trend. The market currently has not provided sufficiently clear directional signals. A wiser approach is to wait—specifically, to wait for the Federal Reserve to make a clear statement on the path of interest rate cuts.

Once expectations of rate cuts become clear, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge will significantly increase, leading to a substantial rise in prices. At that point, investors who have positioned early will be able to share in the gains. The current “wait and see” stance is actually preparing for a future “precise strike.”