Is Bitcoin about to begin a rebound from the bottom? The consolidation range is locked between $60,000 and $75,000.

February 12, 2026 — After experiencing the most severe liquidity test since the FTX collapse, the global crypto market has finally seen a subtle technical turning point. According to Gate market data, BTC/USDT completed a “stress test” of the $67,000 level within the past 24 hours, currently trading at $67,600, with a 24-hour increase of 1%.

Although market sentiment remains shrouded in “extreme fear”—the Fear and Greed Index from Alternative data shows a reading of only 11—the price structure itself is signaling more complex messages than sentiment alone. Bitcoin has not collapsed directly toward $60,000 as bears expected; instead, it has been oscillating within the $65,800–$69,000 range, attempting to establish a short-term bottom.

A consensus is forming among top traders and institutional analysts: the $60,000 to $75,000 range has become a key consolidation zone that will determine the overall trend for 2026.

Price Action Record: Resilience and Fragility in Real-Time Data

To judge whether a bottom has been reached, one must first acknowledge the current complexity.

On the morning of February 12 in the Asian market, Gate spot trading showed BTC dipping to a low of $65,984.7, causing a brief wave of panic. However, within the following 12 hours, buy orders quietly returned supported by stabilization in US stock futures, and Bitcoin regained the $68,000 round number.

From a technical perspective, the current demand corridor is defined by Glassnode as the $66,000 to $72,000 zone. Over the past 30 days, this range has absorbed significant ETF selling pressure and miner liquidations. Above this, the $82,000 to $97,000 zone is stacked with massive unrealized losses, forming the core resistance that suppresses a rebound.

The short-term focus is on the $70,000–$72,760 resistance zone. Bitcoin attempted to hold above $72,760 on February 9 but failed, subsequently forming a series of “lower highs.” Traditional technical rules state that as long as the price cannot effectively break through the previous high, the downtrend remains intact. However, it’s noteworthy that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has entered its deepest oversold territory since 2025, fueling a potential technical rebound.

Capital Flows: ETF Outflows Slow and Institutions Reprice

Understanding the significance of the consolidation zone requires insight into what institutions are doing.

The ETF outflows at the start of 2026 are indeed historic—net outflows in January totaled about $1.1 billion, with a single-day net outflow of $818 million on January 29. Goldman Sachs reduced its spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by 39.4% in Q4, reflecting a broader deleveraging among financial institutions.

However, marginal changes are occurring. On February 10, spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $166.5 million, led by Ark Invest and Fidelity. While this amount is not enough to reverse the trend, it marks the first institutional buy after several weeks of continuous “bleeding.”

This supports the core logic of the “$60,000 to $75,000” range forming: above, a large amount of trapped positions await liquidation; below, long-term strategic funds recognize the current price’s value. Institutions are no longer FOMO-ing into high positions as in 2024 but have also stopped reckless liquidations. This “stalemate” between bulls and bears is characteristic of a consolidation zone.

Historical Context: Fourth “Extreme Oversold” in the Past Decade

K33 Research’s latest report provides quantitative support for the “bottoming” thesis.

The report notes that Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen to 15.9. In the past decade, this level has only appeared three times: January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020. After each of these signals, Bitcoin’s average six-month gain was 317%.

Of course, history does not repeat exactly. In late 2018 and March 2020, macro cycles were characterized by easing or shifting toward easing monetary policy; in February 2026, the Federal Reserve still maintains the benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. This is the biggest difference from previous cycles.

On the flip side, the market has partially priced in hawkish expectations. CME Bitcoin futures show a near-term backwardation structure, reflecting traders’ reluctance to pay a premium for forward stories—this pessimistic pricing itself is a necessary condition for a mid-term bottom.

Structural Divergence: Identifying True Assets in a “Zombie Clearance”

In 2025, 11.6 million token projects failed, accounting for 53.2% of all projects in history. This brutal but necessary data underscores the ongoing de-leveraging.

Within this overall market deleveraging, Bitcoin’s dominance remains stable around 59%. Funds are not leaving the crypto space but are consolidating into the highest-credit assets. This is why, when discussing “bottoming and rebound,” Bitcoin and altcoins must be viewed separately.

For “overvalued VC coins” that rely on continuous token subsidies to sustain daily active users and have unproven economic models, the current consolidation zone of $60,000–$75,000 may merely be a correction phase. Conversely, assets with genuine node distribution, active developer communities, and compliant channels (such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some quality Layer 1s) are being priced fearfully, creating a rare structural entry point for 2026.

Current Market Strategy

For Gate platform users, it’s time to abandon the binary “bull or bear” mindset and adopt a range-bound approach.

First, key levels to watch:

Downside, closely monitor $65,000 and $60,000 support levels. If Bitcoin breaks below $65,000 on the daily chart, beware of liquidity gaps accelerating, with the next technical target at the $59,800 annual low. On the upside, wait for daily closes above $72,000 and for ETF net inflows for three consecutive days before confirming a breakout from the bottom.

Second, position management:

Increase cash/stablecoin holdings to 40%–50%. This is not bearish but a way to retain “error margin” amid extreme volatility. For initial entries, consider the pyramid principle: allocate 20% of planned funds near $65,000, add 30% near $60,000, and in extreme cases, deploy the remaining 50% near $55,000.

Third, sentiment indicators:

A rise in the Fear and Greed Index from 11 to above 25 is often more meaningful than a single 5% daily surge. On Gate’s interface, use Coinlass liquidation heatmaps and USDT off-exchange premiums as auxiliary tools for validation.

Summary

Bitcoin’s range of $60,000–$75,000 results from macro liquidity tightening and on-chain capitulation. For investors, this may be a difficult “junk time.” But every historic bull market has gone through similar “price vacuum” periods—markets transition from “emotion-driven” to “value-driven.”

On Gate’s price screen on February 12, the $68,000 figure is cold and objective. It neither promises a reversal nor declares a bear market. It simply reminds every market participant: when most are surrendering chips out of fear, staying in the game and holding ammunition is what ultimately rewards the winners of this cycle.