$BTC #FedLeadershipImpact BTC/USDC, here is a comprehensive technical analysis of the current chart setup.

Executive Summary

The chart depicts Bitcoin in a strong and accelerating downtrend over the analyzed period. Price has broken decisively below key moving averages and support levels, with momentum indicators confirming significant bearish pressure. The market is in a corrective or bearish phase following a previous high near $109k.

1. Price Action & Market Structure

· Current Price: $75,514.35**, down **-4.17%**. This places the price near the **24h low ($74,552.94) and far from the 24h high ($79,164.24), indicating selling pressure throughout the session.
· Trend Direction: Strongly Bearish. The price is trading well below the key Bollinger Band midpoint (BOLL: $88,415.11) and the Parabolic SAR ($86,364.84), both of which now act as dynamic resistance. The sequence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) is clear.
· Key Levels:
· Immediate Resistance: The Parabolic SAR at $86,364.84** and the lower Bollinger Band (LB) at **$76,579.68 (currently being tested from below).
· Strong Resistance: The middle Bollinger Band (BOLL) at $88,415.11** and the upper band (UB) at **$100,250.55.
· Immediate Support: The 24h low at $74,552.94. A break below this confirms continuation of the downtrend.
· Next Support: The Y-axis labels suggest a potential support zone around $71,392.93.

2. Indicator Analysis

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

· Interpretation: The bands are expanding, signaling increasing volatility, typically associated with strong trending moves.
· Price Position: Price has plunged below the Lower Band (LB), which is a classic sign of an oversold and strongly bearish condition. However, in a powerful trend, price can "walk the band" downward.
· Band Width: The wide gap between UB ($100,250.55) and LB ($76,579.68) highlights the high volatility and the extent of the sell-off from recent highs.

Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2)

· Interpretation: The dots are positioned above the price at $86,364.84. This is a definitive bearish trend signal, confirming that the short-term trend is down and providing a trailing resistance point for any rebounds.

MACD (12, 26, 9)

· Interpretation: The MACD histogram is deeply negative at -1,617.22, showing strong bearish momentum.
· Signal Lines: The DIF (3,224.85) has crossed below the DEA (1,607.63) and both are declining. This is a bearish crossover and momentum confirmation.
· Conclusion: Strong selling momentum is in play. For any trend reversal signal, we would need to see the MACD histogram start to rise (less negative) and the DIF to cross back above the DEA.

3. Volume & Market Context

· 24h Volume (BTC): 342.82 BTC. This volume accompanied the significant price drop, suggesting the move had participation and conviction (not a low-volume anomaly).
· 24h Turnover: $26.61M. This provides a fiat value context for the traded volume.
· Context: The price has fallen from a high near **$109,312.90** (as per Y-axis) to the current ~$75.5k, representing a decline of over ~30%. This is a major correction.

4. Key Scenarios & Outlook

Bearish Scenario (Most Likely - Current Path):

· Price fails to reclaim the Lower Bollinger Band ($76,579) as support.
· A break and close below the $74,552** (24h low) opens the path towards the **next support at ~$71,392.
· The Parabolic SAR and middle Bollinger Band continue to cap any rallies.

Neutral/Bullish Reversal Scenario (Requires Confirmation):

· Price needs to recover and hold above the Lower Bollinger Band ($76,579).
· A first sign of buyer strength would be a reclaim of the Parabolic SAR ($86,364), though this is distant.
· A bullish MACD crossover would be needed to signal slowing bearish momentum and a potential consolidation or reversal.
· This scenario is not the primary expectation given the current momentum.

Conclusion and Bias

Current Technical Bias: STRONGLY BEARISH.

The confluence of evidence is overwhelmingly negative:

1. Price Structure: Clear downtrend (lower highs & lows).
2. Indicator Alignment: Price below Lower BB and Parabolic SAR. MACD with bearish crossover and deepening histogram.
3. Momentum: Strong downward momentum as per the MACD and the steep price decline.

Trading Implication: This is not an environment for trying to catch a falling knife (bottom picking). Any long positions are counter-trend and carry high risk. The path of least resistance is down. Traders should watch for a deceleration in bearish momentum (slowing descent, bullish divergence on MACD) or a reclaim of key levels (like the Lower BB) before considering any trend change. The immediate focus is on the $74,552 - $71,392 support zone.