#2026年美国股市展望 【On-Chain Tracking】The big short is back. What does the $200 million short position imply?

Just checked the on-chain data, and this guy dumped another 510 BTC to short this morning. Now, the total short position has surged to $200 million. This position is a bit crazy—the liquidation price for BTC shorts is $94,384, and we're only $1,600 away from that threshold; on the ETH side, it's even tighter, with only $56 left before liquidation. This is no longer a matter of "aggressiveness"—it's like dancing on the edge of a cliff.

But after seeing the data, I actually have a different feeling.

His holdings tell me something: BTC shorts are currently floating at a loss of 280,000, while ETH is floating at a profit of 2.49 million. That's interesting—the market is heavily betting on Ethereum's weakness, while the pressure to short Bitcoin seems more like panic sentiment rather than a fundamental consensus. Large funds are willing to continue shorting BTC above 92,000, betting on a short-term dump rather than a trend reversal.

The lines at 94,384 and 3,246 have now become the market's "magnetic centers." Once the price rebounds near these numbers, a massive number of shorts will be forced to close simultaneously, potentially triggering a short squeeze. From a risk perspective, it's terrifying; from an opportunity standpoint, it could be the trigger for a bullish rebound.

Considering the macro environment (interest rate cut expectations cooling down) and on-chain activity (whale accumulation slowing), the market is indeed tugging between bulls and bears. But history tells us: extreme positions often appear on the eve of a reversal.

My judgment remains unchanged: this is not the place to blindly chase shorts; rather, it's time to start guarding against short traps. Sudden drops in a bull market are usually shakeouts, not trend reversals. I will continue to monitor liquidation charts and large on-chain fund flows, waiting for signals of a bullish comeback.

Trading is never about who has the bigger guts, but about who sees clearly and holds steady. Stay tuned—when the next rhythm arrives, we’ll ride it together.