2026-01-20 04:20:36

Market research institutions' recent 2026 outlook report hits hard — 2025 did not see the anticipated rally, which suggests that the four-year cycle theory that worked well in the past may really be outdated.

What is the current situation? A large amount of new capital is being absorbed by a few leading institutions, making life difficult for retail and small to medium investors.

So, to change this situation in 2026, market participation needs to expand, and at least one of these three conditions must be met: First, the investment scope of derivatives like spot ETFs and DAT continues to expand; second, Bitcoin or Ethereum experiences a significant surge, creating a wealth effect that attracts more people; third, a large number of stock investors start shifting to cryptocurrencies, bringing real money and releasing stablecoins.

Even meeting one of these three conditions is enough to inject new vitality into the market. Which do you think is most likely?

BTC-4,54%

ETH-7,86%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

6 Likes

Reward
6
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SerumDegen

· 12h ago

nah the 4yr cycle copium is dead, whales already priced us out before retail even woke up fr

Reply0

SilentAlpha

· 14h ago

Breaking the four-year cycle really did slap a lot of people in the face, but to be honest, the institution's bloodsucking has been obvious for a long time. The second most likely reason is that without a price increase, there's no hype, and retail investors can't get in at all. The ETF approach doesn't mean much to small investors; let's just wait for Bitcoin to give us a surprise. Stock investors switching to crypto? Dream on, the risk tolerance is way too different. Basically, it's just waiting for the big players to finish their shakeout.

View OriginalReply0

Anon4461

· 19h ago

Is the four-year cycle dead? Uh... I think this time it's really different. Institutions eat the meat, retail investors drink the soup, it's standard. Among the three conditions, I bet on the second one—there needs to be a decent increase to attract new leek investors. The two ETFs and the shift of stockholders feel too slow; the market can't wait.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeVictim

· 19h ago

The four-year cycle is gone? So my actions over the past few years were just pure gambling, haha. Institutions are draining too aggressively; retail investors are really struggling... I just want to ask, do any of these three conditions currently hold? ETF expansion is the most stable, but the wealth effect is really what attracts people. Without a rise, how can new investors be drawn in? Honestly, it still has to go up; if it doesn't, everything else is pointless.

View OriginalReply0

DegenMcsleepless

· 19h ago

The cycle theory is really starting to fall apart, I can't hold it anymore, retail investors have truly become a cash machine🤡 --- Among the three conditions, I still favor the second one, after all, the wealth effect is the most direct, the other two are too虚了 --- The phenomenon of institutional bloodsucking is becoming more and more obvious. If there isn't a big surge in 2026, I think retail investors should withdraw --- Honestly, the path of spot ETF has been paved long ago, the key is whether BTC is willing to move --- Switching to stock investors? Hmm... forget it, I don't believe this story --- The four-year cycle is outdated... So have I been waiting in vain all these years? --- As long as one condition is met, I will continue to bet on expanding the ETF range, safer --- Now, large institutions are clearly manipulating the market, small retail investors entering is just giving away money --- The wealth effect is the most likely to trigger, but the prerequisite is that BTC must run first --- I just want to know why retail investors always buy high and get caught high, while institutions can still make a profit...

View OriginalReply0

PebbleHander

· 19h ago

The four-year cycle has long been crushed by institutions, now it's our retail investors' turn to get hammered. It's mainly a matter of waiting for big funds to enter; otherwise, this situation is indeed hard to endure. I'm betting on the third one. Those stock retail investors will realize sooner or later that crypto is more exciting. Really, institutions are bloodsucking, and we can only wait for the right moment. I think ETF expansion has the highest probability since they have a large amount of quality assets to handle. To put it simply, if it doesn't rise, it's the institutions unloading; after they finish, a wave will naturally follow. Everyone currently entering is gambling; not gambling means you're out. Aren't our retail investors already being harvested enough? What if none of the three conditions are met? Then 2026 will just continue to be a bear market. Actually, none of this really matters; the key depends on whether the Federal Reserve and policymakers give any signals. Don't wait any longer; the big players have already started their布局.

View OriginalReply0

FundingMartyr

· 19h ago

Oh my god, the four-year cycle really tricked us badly... Retail investors are now just living on bloodsucking.

View OriginalReply0

RugResistant

· 19h ago

Is the four-year cycle theory dead? It should have died long ago. Don't blame 2025; the problem is that institutions are bleeding retail investors and still feeding them. Bro, I bet on the second one. We need a decent surge to come through; without the wealth effect, who the hell would enter the market? Among the three conditions, the third one is the most ridiculous—stock traders switching to crypto? Wake up, buddy. What’s the use of expanding ETFs? Aren’t we the ones getting cut? The small investors are suffering badly.

View OriginalReply0