Crypto Analyst Garrett Jin Challenges Bear Market Narrative for Bitcoin

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Giant Chinese Crypto Whale Responds to Claims That Bitcoin is in a Bear Market Original Link: Crypto analyst Garrett Jin shared a comprehensive analysis challenging the “bear market” narrative surrounding Bitcoin.

Jin argued that recent comparisons between Bitcoin’s current price movements and 2022 market conditions lack long-term perspective. He highlighted that at the beginning of 2022, global capital prioritized risk aversion while Bitcoin distributed at high levels during the tightening cycle. In contrast, the current macroeconomic environment is moving in the opposite direction, with the US liquidity index breaking both short-term and long-term downtrends and forming a new uptrend.

Technical Analysis

On the technical front, Jin noted that Bitcoin exhibited an “M-top” formation on the weekly chart during 2021-2022, which could create prolonged downward pressure. However, he emphasized that the current structure differs significantly. While the weekly ascending channel appears to have broken downwards, Jin suggested this could be a potential “bear trap,” with price highly likely to return within the channel. The strong consolidation and change of hands in the $80,850-$62,000 range, according to Jin, offers higher upside potential than downside risk for long positions.

Conditions for a Structural Bear Market

According to Jin, a structural bear market requires three negative conditions to occur simultaneously:

• A new inflation shock or major geopolitical crisis on the scale of 2022
• Central banks returning to interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction
• A permanent price drop below the $80,850 level

Jin argued that declaring a bear market without these conditions being met constitutes speculation rather than analysis.

Evolution of Investor Structure

The most significant difference highlighted was the evolution of investor structure. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a “crypto-specific” bear market primarily driven by individual investors with high leverage. Today, the market has entered a more mature phase with institutional actors taking center stage. The current structure is characterized by locked supply, stable underlying demand, and volatility at the institutional level. Jin predicted that by early 2026, Bitcoin will be operating on a completely different ground than it did in 2022.