How can you really judge whether those star developer teams are shipping something worthwhile? Simple answer: you can't, not with certainty anyway. That's precisely where the speculation comes in—through solid due diligence and managing expectations around whether they'll actually deliver. Missing opportunities because you waited for perfect information is its own cost. Think about it: if everyone had complete foresight, nobody would ever be surprised by anything. The reality is you have to make moves despite the uncertainty. That's the game.