#Strategy加仓BTC Is the bull-bear turning point really here? Experienced traders analyze the true face of this market cycle: historical patterns, don’t rush blindly during a decline

Lately, the feeling of watching the market has become increasingly familiar, with the barrage all asking the same question: Is this a normal correction in a bull market, or has the bear market already knocked on the door?

I remember when I first entered the scene, hearing seasoned traders talk about a four-year bull-bear cycle, and I didn’t take it seriously at the time. It wasn’t until this wave of market movement that I truly understood—bull and bear markets aren’t just words, they are verified with real money! $BTC From 126,000 to 94,000, other coins are even worse, with half or more of their value wiped out—these are everywhere. Can we still say the market hasn’t changed face?

What’s most alarming is the strange phenomenon at the beginning of the month: $BTC stuck at 110,000 and not moving, while a bunch of small coins surged wildly, doubling or tripling in value, confusing everyone. This scene is almost a carbon copy of the night before the 2021 bear market! I warned about the risks back then and was heavily criticized. And what happened? Billions of leverage were wiped out across the entire network, and a year’s worth of gains vanished in just one month.

Looking at the time cycle from another perspective—after the halving, reaching the 18-month mark, this point has always been a key turning point for the market. The technical indicators are even more straightforward: the three-year moving average and the yearly line have been broken one after another, and the 72,000 level has become the last psychological defense. Plus, the macro environment is cold water: no more rate cuts, hawkish speeches from various officials bombarding the market, and liquidity tightening. The usual liquidity release at the end of the year is very likely not happening this time.

$ETH and spot ETFs are still attracting money, so the market isn’t completely dead, but big funds have already pulled back and are watching from the sidelines. Instead of obsessing over whether it’s a bull or bear, it’s better to stabilize yourself first.

Real opportunities are never found where the crowd is loudest, but in quiet corners, slowly accumulating. Don’t rush blindly; think clearly about your strategy before acting. It’s a hundred times more efficient than reckless impulsiveness.