Market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts are stirring global asset markets. As of January 6th, Eastern Time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both hit record highs, with AI chip stocks performing the best. Meanwhile, the crypto market is also active—Bitcoin has gained 8.52% over the past 7 days and is approaching the $95,000 mark, while Ethereum surged 40% in 72 hours, breaking through $2,600. Precious metals are even more dramatic, with London Gold nearing $4,500 and London Silver soaring 6.05% in a single day. The only underperformers are Chinese concept stocks, with the Golden Dragon Index falling 0.78%, and several individual stocks dropping more than 6%.

Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over rate cuts are widening. Dovish representative Milan calls for a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year, noting that inflation is close to the target range. In contrast, hawkish member Kashkari believes there is much less room for rate cuts. In between, Barkin emphasizes the need to balance inflation control and employment maintenance.

CME futures market probability forecasts reflect the market’s true sentiment. The probability of maintaining rates in January is as high as 81.7%, with only an 18.3% chance of a rate cut. By March, the situation becomes more complex: the probability of holding rates steady is 52.8%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is 40.7%. Institutions have differing opinions on the year's direction—some bet on 2-3 rate cuts, while others believe there will be no cuts throughout the year.

Regarding asset outlooks, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both set target prices for gold at $4,800–$4,900, citing expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases as support. In the crypto sector, Ethereum benefits from technological upgrades and short squeeze effects, while the Bitcoin options market generally remains optimistic about reaching $100,000.