#衍生品市场合约 Seeing the liquidity contraction during this Christmas week, a few key moments from the past few years naturally come to mind. At the end of 2017, and again at the end of 2021, each time around year-end, the market tends to replay similar scenes—liquidity dries up, leverage is actively liquidated, and options expire en masse. History is like an old movie played repeatedly; the details differ, but the plot is remarkably similar.

The current data looks quite striking: overnight, open interest in BTC perpetual contracts evaporated by $3 billion, and ETH also shrank by $2 billion. This isn’t a scene of panic selling; rather, it seems somewhat calm—market participants are actively deleveraging, indicating that they haven't completely lost their rationality. But this is precisely the moment that tests people the most.

The options expiration on Friday was indeed massive, with 300,000 BTC options and a volume of $23.7 billion, with over 50% of open interest concentrated on Deribit around the holiday, with the main pain point near $95,000. I experienced similar situations in 2018 and 2019; back then, the options market was not as developed, but the concentration of futures contract expirations could also create short-term price distortions. The problem now is that the size of derivatives has amplified the power of these distortions.

More worth noting is the risk reversal indicator—market sentiment has eased compared to the past 30 days, but overall remains slightly bearish. This suggests that everyone is waiting, but what are they waiting for? Is it the confirmation of direction after liquidity returns in January, or just passing time within this range? History tells me that holiday market moves often revert to the mean after liquidity recovers, but only if there are no sudden systemic shocks.

The year-end tax loss harvesting factor should not be overlooked; in a low-liquidity environment, it can amplify short-term volatility several times. I’ve seen mini flash crashes triggered by this at the end of 2019. The composition of market participants in crypto has changed significantly now—more institutional investors mean more scaled tax operations, but this also suggests that volatility might be more predictable.

Short-term, continued volatility is highly probable, but don’t be blinded by this range. True turning points often occur when liquidity is at its most scarce, quietly paving the way for the next phase.