Recent news about Venezuela has sparked interesting discussions in the crypto community. According to multiple sources, this South American country may have accumulated a significant Bitcoin reserve—approximately 600,000 to 660,000 BTC, which translates to about $60 billion to $67 billion. How exaggerated is this figure? It accounts for about 3% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin, enough to rival the holdings of major global institutional players.

How did these Bitcoins come about? The story dates back to 2018. At that time, Venezuela exchanged part of the revenue from exporting gold from the Orinoco mining region for Bitcoin. Later, when the Petro project failed to take off, the government mandated state oil companies to settle crude oil transactions using stablecoins, which were then converted into Bitcoin. The benefits of this approach are obvious—evading international sanctions and avoiding dollar risk. Additionally, the government confiscated numerous domestic mining equipment to expand its holdings.

You see, this multi-layered and decentralized operation has kept these assets long-term outside the scope of international regulation.

Now, the question is: if these Bitcoins are seized or frozen by the US, how will the market react? There is a historical precedent—Saxony in Germany once sold 50,000 BTC, which caused a noticeable price correction. But what about 600,000 BTC? If locked up long-term, it might not cause a dump; instead, it could lead to a structural supply contraction, providing medium- to long-term support for prices. This logic is reversed.

The US has roughly three options for handling this: judicial freezing, inclusion in national strategic reserves, or direct auction and liquidation. The first two are the most realistic and could isolate this supply for 5 to 10 years. If that happens, the geopolitical narrative of the entire crypto market will be rewritten, and Bitcoin’s story as a “sovereign safe-haven asset” will become more nuanced.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Venezuela case actually signals that in an era of sanctions and financial isolation, Bitcoin is playing an increasingly important role. The subsequent development of this story could become a key variable influencing the global crypto market structure around 2026.