Those who have endured the cycle understand: 150,000 is not the end point, but the starting point for institutional entry.

Since 2017, I have witnessed the Bitcoin bull market surge from 10,000 to 60,000, as well as its deep correction down to 3,800. Recently, institutions have set a target of 150,000 by 2026. My reaction is neither surprise nor blind follow-the-leader—rather, I see some things worth serious analysis.

The Logic Behind Institutional Adjustment of Goals

Standard Chartered cut their target from 300,000 to 150,000, which seems bearish at first glance, but actually reflects a more pragmatic expectation. After the ETF listing, institutional buying has not been as aggressive as imagined, but this may not be a bad thing. Previous expectations were overly optimistic; now, the 150,000 anchor point represents rational optimism—both Bernstein and Saylor are stuck at this number, essentially betting that Bitcoin is breaking away from the traditional four-year cycle.

This is not just talk. Currently, institutional allocation of crypto assets in the US stock market is just over 0.1%. Even if it only increases to 0.5%, the capital released would be enough to push the price toward 150,000. In other words, institutions still have huge allocation space that has not been tapped.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $91.41K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.39%. At this level, aiming for 150,000 is still a considerable distance.

But you need to recognize two realities

Volatility has not decreased at all. Some say volatility has declined now, but that’s because they compare current conditions to the crazy bull run of 2021. But if Bitcoin really drops back to the 40,000 to 70,000 range, can you withstand it? After bottoming out in 2019, I also experienced the drop from 10,000 to 3,800, when more people called for a bull run than now.

Institutional expectations are the floor, not the ceiling. Fundstrat’s target of 200,000 to 250,000 is not nonsense—so long as the US stock market doesn’t crash and risk appetite in the crypto market recovers, breaking through 150,000 is highly probable. But the premise is that you don’t get shaken out during the retracements along the way.

How to operate rationally

First, control your position size. Use no more than 30% of idle funds for allocation, and keep the rest for dips. If prices really fall to 40,000–70,000, that’s an opportunity to buy more—don’t run out of ammunition when the time comes.

Second, watch institutional moves rather than daily charts. If Grayscale’s spot ETF holdings see three consecutive weeks of net inflows, or if BlackRock starts increasing their holdings, that’s a real signal. Don’t let intraday volatility mess with your mindset.

Third, don’t just hoard Bitcoin. Allocate some small positions to L2 track projects with real application and landing. When Bitcoin rises, the flexibility of sector tokens often increases even more.

Lastly, this is very important

The money I make is never from guessing tops or bottoms, but from holding positions based on rational expectations and exiting in extreme emotions. The 150,000 target in 2026 may not be the end, but you must survive the fluctuations along the way. Anyone who has gone through a full cycle understands this—no matter how optimistic the outlook, always leave a backup plan for the worst-case scenario.