Many inquiries have been received from the backend, all asking whether to buy the dip during Bitcoin's sideways consolidation. First, let me ask everyone a question: Have you noticed the turnover scale of 800,000 coins? Are you sure this is an opportunity or a trap? Don’t be fooled by the rhetoric of "sideways accumulation will inevitably lead to a rise."

This wave of the New Year’s market looks calm on the surface, but there are underlying currents. The 800,000 Bitcoin turnover within the $1000 range is not simply a "new-old replacement" phenomenon; it more resembles the "last inducement" before a trend reversal.

Let’s analyze this logic with on-chain data. Many compare the current market to last spring, mentioning the massive sideways consolidation of over 80,000 coins followed by a breakout and rise. But this comparison has issues. The sideways consolidation at around 85,000 last year had two key conditions that are now completely absent. First, back then, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Although the process was uncertain and fluctuating, there was at least some hope; now, the expectation of rate cuts has been exaggerated into a "wolf coming," and market sentiment has long been exhausted. Second, at the end of last year's sideways phase, there was a strong catalyst like "easing of tariff negotiations." Currently? Geopolitical news is everywhere, but there’s no substantial progress. Policy measures are stagnant, institutions are still on the sidelines, and it’s a situation where "there’s no story to tell."

Looking at the composition of the buying funds, this is the most easily overlooked detail. On-chain data shows that this round of accumulation is dominated by short-term speculative funds, with very little increase in long-term holding addresses. In other words, the funds taking this position are not here to "HODL," but to "bet on a short-term rebound." This fund characteristic determines that their stability and willingness to hold are limited. If the rebound underperforms or a correction occurs, these floating chips are very likely to be sold off, which could even accelerate a decline.

Considering the liquidity environment, the market currently lacks new incremental funds entering. Institutional investors are waiting for clearer fundamental signals, and retail investors are hesitant and observing. In this context, relying solely on the turnover of existing funds makes it difficult to generate effective upward momentum. Although the current turnover volume looks substantial, its actual effectiveness may be seriously overestimated.