#预测市场 Seeing the news that Kalshi has suspended the university athlete transfer prediction contracts, my first reaction is not sympathy for the exchange, but relief.

The underlying issues behind this matter are worth vigilance. Prediction markets themselves are not inherently problematic, but when they start causing direct harm to the underlying subject, it’s time to reassess. While the criticism of NCAA may sound somewhat protectionist, it is logically sound—once there is money to be made, student athletes will be targeted, with risks of harassment and even manipulation following. This is not alarmist; we see such cases too often in the crypto world.

The key point is Kalshi’s attitude. Submitting documents to the CFTC but then "not necessarily officially listing" the contracts is an ambiguous approach I find unconvincing. Either have confidence to push forward, or don’t be a pioneer at all. This tentative operation easily gives the impression: first hype up the concept, observe market reactions, and if it doesn’t work out, casually shelve it—just as the attention and hype that should have been earned are lost.

From a risk prevention perspective, I suggest everyone ask a few questions before participating in any prediction market product: Is there a possibility of manipulation of the underlying? How strong is the exchange’s actual risk control capability? When public opinion or regulatory pressure arises, will they first shift blame and then apologize?

History repeatedly shows us that the most profitable moment is not when you buy the dip, but when you survive long enough.