#美联储降息预期 Next week, the Federal Reserve Chair nomination will be announced, and the market will start speculating again. I looked at the probability distribution, and Hasset is leading, but how much of these numbers are real and how much are inflated is anyone’s guess. This reminds me of a few years ago when macroeconomic data expectations were announced, and I was always caught off guard.

When GDP data, unemployment rate, PCE inflation index, and other macro indicators come out, the crypto community starts creating stories—either saying "rate cuts are certain to cause a surge" or "rate hike expectations are bearish." Let me tell you, these macro data themselves have no absolute meaning; the key is how the big players and large funds interpret them. The same GDP data can be spun as positive or negative, depending on who is paying the bill.

What’s most painful is that many people see "Federal Reserve rate cut expectations" and start FOMO, thinking it’s a signal to jump in. But my experience is that the real risk often hides when the market is most excited. Christmas rallies, Trump’s moves, various news bombarding—these are times to be especially cautious. Because the higher the market enthusiasm, the greater the chance of being caught off guard.

My current approach is simple: after macro data is released, I focus on the actual actions of mainstream funds rather than the frenzy in comment sections. If the news is positive but the coin price is still suppressed, it means big funds don’t really believe in that story. To survive long in this market, you have to learn to be friends with the market noise, not let it hijack you.