PI's Dilemma: Security Incidents, Massive Unlocks, and Ecosystem Breakthrough

PI (Pi Coin) is currently trading at $0.21, up 0.83% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.754 billion, ranking 45th globally. Behind this seemingly stable price performance, the “first mobile mining coin” is facing multiple challenges: security incidents have damaged user confidence, the release of 134 million tokens in January creates supply pressure, and ecosystem expansion along with infrastructure upgrades offer potential hedges.

Price Performance and Market Data

According to the latest market data, PI has shown relative stability over the past 24 hours:

Recent trends show that PI has increased by 2.00% over 7 days but declined by 8.56% over the past 30 days, reflecting market sentiment fluctuations. Trading volume remains limited, posing liquidity challenges for large transactions.

Impact of Security Crisis on User Confidence

Recently, PI Network experienced a serious social engineering attack. Reports indicate that over 4.4 million PI tokens were stolen in a scam, with fraudsters exploiting blockchain transparency to lock large amounts of PI in wallet addresses and then disguising payment requests to deceive users into authorizing transactions.

The severity of this incident warrants attention:

• Since July 2025, scam wallets have collectively received between 700,000 and 800,000 PI tokens
• Fund inflows accelerated significantly in December, indicating escalating scam activities
• The project team has temporarily suspended wallet payment request functions as an emergency measure

Although the project introduced two-factor authentication, optimized KYC procedures, and launched a Node version update in March, the large-scale scam exposed vulnerabilities in existing risk control mechanisms. Such events are short-term blows to user confidence, especially during the critical mainnet migration phase, potentially affecting new user onboarding and existing user retention.

Supply Pressure from Large Unlocks in January

A more direct market pressure stems from upcoming token unlocks. PI Network plans a major token unlock in January 2026, releasing approximately 134 million PI tokens, which is 15 times higher than the roughly 8.7 million tokens unlocked at the end of December.

The issues with this unlock include:

• Limited trading channels for PI, with insufficient support from mainstream exchanges
• Price discovery mechanisms are not fully established, and market liquidity is lacking
• Although the number of pioneer users has exceeded 60 million, whether these users can absorb the increased supply remains uncertain
• December’s unlock did not cause obvious disruptions, but most analysts see it as a preliminary “stress test”

In the absence of strong fundamentals, the significant increase in unlock volume in January could exert ongoing downward pressure on the price. This is a key risk factor for PI in the short term.

Ecosystem Progress as a Hedge

It is worth noting that progress in infrastructure and ecosystem applications may provide price support.

The project has made advances in several areas:

• DEX architecture upgrade: migrating multi-token liquidity pools to Pi-denominated trading pairs, consolidating on-chain liquidity, and reducing trading slippage
• User activation: over 1.2 million previously restricted users have been unlocked, with about 250,000 reapplying for KYC
• Application ecosystem: the first Open Network Hackathon received 215 mainnet application submissions, covering privacy social, merchant loyalty, gaming, and entertainment sectors
• Commercial scenarios: over 220 global merchants participated in holiday trading events, with more than 125,000 merchants involved in holiday business plans

These developments indicate that PI Network is steadily advancing the mainnet transition and creating conditions for ecosystem deployment. While it may be difficult to fully offset the token unlock pressure in the short term, these efforts provide substantial support for medium-term development.

Summary

PI currently faces a typical “risk and opportunity coexistence” situation. In the short term, security incidents and large token unlocks exert dual pressure, potentially continuing to depress the price. However, from an ecosystem development perspective, progress in infrastructure, merchant partnerships, and application ecosystem expansion lay a foundation for medium-term growth.

Key points to watch are whether the January large-scale unlock can be fully absorbed by the market, and whether improvements in security governance can rebuild user confidence. These factors will largely determine PI’s market performance in the first half of this year. For investors interested in PI, recent market fluctuations may serve as a window to observe the project’s true progress.