Recently, I have been paying attention to an interesting market observation — some analysts are bearish on the overall crypto market this year, expecting Bitcoin to possibly fall below $40,000 or slightly above that level. This judgment is based on several noteworthy phenomena.

**Funds are quietly shifting**

The ongoing strength of gold is a clear signal, indicating that market risk appetite is significantly declining. At the same time, traditional stock markets are absorbing large amounts of liquidity, forming a typical "stock up, crypto bleeding" pattern. Interestingly, risk capital is more inclined to flow into markets with regulation and clear narratives rather than highly volatile, uncertain crypto assets. This shift may continue.

**On-chain data issues warnings**

Data from major exchanges already show obvious signs of weakening. Active funds are continuously net outflowing, and trading volume is shrinking. The put-call ratio is declining, and fear sentiment is clearly rising. Interestingly, although funding rates are decreasing, prices are struggling to sustain a rebound. This combination of signals usually indicates the market is entering a chronic retreat phase.

**Problems within the industry itself**

From a fundamental perspective, stagnation in technical development and internal marketing narratives have become the norm. Scam projects and air coins are emerging endlessly, coupled with regulatory absence, leading to ongoing erosion of market trust. Frankly, large funds are unlikely to sustain long-term positions based on "PPT + community + meme packs." Marginalization may be the major trend in this sector.

**Expected market trend**

Without breakthroughs in real applications or systemic-level positive policies, this year's crypto market is more likely to follow a "decline — slight rebound — further decline" consumption pattern. This is obviously unfriendly to bulls, but for shorts who strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline, the environment is becoming more favorable.

The market won't collapse overnight, but it is very likely to cause most people to gradually lose patience — which is often the cruelest way to decline. The size of the crypto market may have already peaked, and subsequent bloodletting is expected to continue, with a high probability of overall weakening.

Based on these judgments, it is recommended to control your funds on exchanges. The crypto market carries hidden risks of sudden events. Be cautious when opening positions; this is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice.