#预测市场发展 The discussion about prediction markets has heated up again, and I want to share some thoughts with everyone.

In the past two years, prediction markets have indeed been developing rapidly. Industry leaders' view of a "super cycle" reflects the true demand of the market—people are eager to obtain information from more transparent and honest signals. I understand this logic and agree on the value of prediction markets in information discovery.

But I want to issue a warning here: opportunities and risks often coexist. When a field attracts a large influx of capital, participants' enthusiasm can often drive up risks. Trillions of dollars in trading volume sound exciting, but they also mean higher volatility and more complex risk structures.

I have always believed that no matter how promising a track is, the key to participation lies in **position management**. Do not treat prediction markets as a get-rich-quick opportunity, but rather as part of your investment portfolio. Allocate a reasonable proportion to it, and bear an acceptable risk exposure—so even if your judgment is wrong, it won't harm your overall assets.

In the long run, prediction markets may indeed reshape the information ecosystem, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Staying rational and planning for risks properly are the right ways to navigate cycles.