The seemingly calm Ethereum price fluctuations are actually undercurrents of turbulence.

The current market around $3000 appears stable on the surface but hides significant structural risks. A set of comparative data is enough to illustrate the issue: at the $3100 level, only $629 million in short liquidations have occurred, while below $2900, there is a buildup of $972 million in long liquidations—this 1.5x difference in volume essentially reflects extremely crowded long positions below.

**On-chain signals have already issued a clear warning**

Bitcoin has plummeted from a high of $126,000 to $88,000, with this cliff-like drop directly impacting the risk appetite of the entire crypto market. As the asset most correlated with the broader market, ETH cannot withstand the pressure of independent strength. The seemingly united bullish front is merely an illusion—until the price truly hits a pain point—once key support is broken, a wave of liquidations will spread rapidly like dominoes.

What’s more concerning are the subtle changes in on-chain funds. Ignoring the surface-level fluctuations in Gas fees, the key indicator is the quiet increase in staking withdrawal requests—this precisely indicates that some large holders are systematically exiting. The so-called "low fee rates attracting new funds" narrative can no longer conceal the actual difficulties faced by the bullish camp.

**$2900 is not just a simple support level but a risk ignition point**

While $3100 appears as resistance, it is actually relatively weak. The real "crucial point" lies below. Once the price hits $2900, the massive long liquidation zone will immediately trigger a chain reaction, further transmitting pressure down to $2700. This is not mere speculation but a reasonable inference based on liquidation data and on-chain fund flows.