MSTR plummets 49% to a new low, why did Michael Saylor's Bitcoin gamble fail?

MicroStrategy (MSTR) performed poorly in 2025, declining 49.3% for the year, with the stock price falling to its lowest level since late September 2024. More notably, this company experienced its first six consecutive months of decline since adopting the Bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020 — from July to December, month after month under pressure. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price performed relatively steadily in 2025, and the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 20.17%. Once aggressive Bitcoin strategies are now facing a severe market test.

Six consecutive months of decline, setting a historic record

MSTR’s decline was not an overnight event but a continuous process. According to data, the monthly declines over the past six months were: August down 16.78%, September down 3.65%, October down 16.36%, November down 34.26%, December down 14.24%, with a total decline of 59.30% over six months. As of December 31, 2025, the stock closed at $151.95.

How rare is this phenomenon? Since Michael Saylor announced the adoption of Bitcoin as the primary treasury asset strategy in August 2020, MSTR has never experienced six consecutive months of decline. This is not just a stock price issue but also a question of strategic effectiveness.

The Strange Divergence from Bitcoin

Even more ironic is that MSTR’s stock performance is completely opposite to Bitcoin’s. Although the news did not specify Bitcoin’s exact gains in 2025, related information indicates that Bitcoin performed relatively steadily during this cycle. While MSTR increased its holdings by 1,229 Bitcoins (investing about $108 million) in late December, this “counter-trend adding” did not prevent the stock from continuing to fall.

This reflects a core issue: market confidence in MSTR’s aggressive Bitcoin-centric strategy is waning. Investors no longer believe that “all in Bitcoin” can generate excess returns.

Rising doubts about the strategy

This stock performance has also sparked frank criticism from market observers. Economist Peter Schiff issued sharp doubts at the end of the year, stating that if MSTR were included in the S&P 500, its 47.5% decline in 2025 would make it the sixth-worst performing stock in the index. More bluntly, he believes that Michael Saylor’s claim that “the best choice is to buy Bitcoin” has completely failed in the case of MSTR — this strategy “destroyed shareholder value.”

This is not an insignificant criticism. It suggests that MSTR’s Bitcoin strategy has not only failed to generate excess returns for shareholders but has also caused significant losses.

Michael Saylor’s Personal Cost

Michael Saylor himself has paid a price for this strategy. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, his net worth has decreased by about $2.6 billion over the past 12 months, with current assets around $3.8 billion. This wealth shrinkage, for a former crypto industry leader, is both a personal loss and a direct reflection of strategic failure.

More notably, Saylor had optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2025 at the beginning of the year, believing that with institutional inflows, Bitcoin would steadily rise. By the end of October, he adjusted his forecast to around $150,000. But ultimately, this prediction also fell short.

Divergence in institutional attitudes

Interestingly, institutional investors in the crypto industry have shown divergence regarding Bitcoin strategies. On one hand, MSTR continued to increase its holdings; on the other hand, BlackRock reduced its Bitcoin holdings at year-end due to ETF redemption pressures and cooling demand. This conflicting stance reflects ongoing adjustments in market perceptions of Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Summary

MSTR’s crash in 2025 is not just a simple stock fluctuation but a market judgment on a radical strategy. Six consecutive months of decline broke a five-year record, and the divergence between stock and Bitcoin performance exposed the risks of an “all-in crypto” approach. Michael Saylor’s once-bold gamble is now facing a harsh reality. Whether or not the company continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings, MSTR must confront a stark fact: the effectiveness of its strategy is no longer a theoretical issue but a result of investor votes with their feet.