On the last day of 2025, the crypto market swings like a pendulum between hope and fear. Bitcoin on the screen repeatedly struggles around the $88,000 mark. Behind this battle between bulls and bears, it’s actually liquidity playing a trick.

To be honest, many people can’t see through the current market situation. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December. Logically, risk assets should rise accordingly. But what about Bitcoin? It continues to fluctuate below $90,000, without showing the strong rebound expected. What is hidden behind this contrast?

The market has already "consumed" the rate cut. From the first rate cut in September to the additional cut in December, this process has been fully digested by the market. Think about it—like a movie that’s already been spoiled; even if the plot is exciting, the audience’s reaction will be indifferent. The rate cut signals have appeared many times, and the market is now accustomed to them.

The more critical issue is the time lag. The rate cut by the Federal Reserve is like opening the dam gates, but this liquidity needs time to seep into the crypto market’s tributary. Currently, the market is stuck in the most awkward stage—QT (quantitative tightening) has just ended, and new liquidity has not fully flowed in yet. That’s why everyone is waiting, watching, but no one is rushing to place big bets.

Experienced traders know very well that at this point, every step must be taken with precision.