Looking at Bitcoin's halving cycles since 2011, there's actually a fairly stable pattern—each of the first three cycles completed the transition from bull to bear in the fourth year.

How does it unfold? The pattern is quite clear. In each of the first three cycles: within 1 to 1.5 years after the halving, the price experiences an explosive surge, often increasing by hundreds to thousands of times. Then, from the peak, it drops, with bear markets typically falling between 70% and 85%. And each time, the turning point from bull to bear arrives precisely in the fourth year.

Let's look at the first cycle (2011-2014, with the first halving in November 2012). In 2011, the price skyrocketed from $0.3 to $4.72, a 1474% increase, with a wild spike to $30 before pulling back. In 2012, it continued to rise by 303%, reaching $13.30. By 2013, it started to surge again, climbing from $13.30 to $750, a 5537% increase. But in 2014, it fell by 58%, dropping from $750 to $320.

The second cycle (2015-2018, with the second halving in July 2016) followed a similar rhythm. In 2015, it increased by 34%, from $320 to $430. In 2016, it doubled, rising 125%. Then, in 2017 and 2018, the market experienced a legendary rally. In 2018, it entered a bear market, with declines exceeding 60%.

The third cycle (2019-2022, with the third halving in January 2020) also followed this pattern. The gains in the first two years built up to a peak, and starting in 2022, the price began to decline.

So the question is—what about 2026? According to this cycle pattern, will Bitcoin repeat the fourth-year turning point? This is something worth watching closely.