Recent Bitcoin price fluctuations have attracted considerable market attention. On one hand, technical indicators show bearish signals, with short-term EMAs indicating ongoing pressure; on the other hand, some positive signals are emerging from the capital side, and the actions of institutional investors and on-chain large holders are worth noting.

From the institutional perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 3.55 billion on the last day of the year, breaking a seven-day streak of capital outflows. Although there is short-term selling pressure, this data reflects that institutional investors' demand remains. More interestingly, the world's largest stablecoin issuer bought a substantial 8888.88 BTC during Q4 2025, equivalent to approximately 7.8451 billion. Such actions are generally seen as a sign of market participants' confidence in the long-term outlook.

On the technical side, the MACD histogram recently turned positive, which many traders interpret as a potential bullish momentum signal. However, the 7-period and 25-period EMAs show a weak alignment, indicating caution is still warranted in the short term. Capital flow data shows significant net outflows on multiple hourly levels, with high trading concentration, suggesting that selling pressure has not fully eased.

Macroeconomic concerns cannot be ignored either. The Federal Reserve injected $31 billion into the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements, which typically signals potential liquidity stress in the financial system. These macro factors are shaping the market outlook for 2026, with increasing complexity.

Community voices also reflect this dilemma—some remain on the sidelines due to recent declines, while others hold expectations for a rebound after the New Year. Institutional demand, ETF flows, and the holdings changes of stablecoin giants are all competing factors. The short-term trend requires continued observation of key support levels.