Recently, I've seen a bunch of analyses and discussions about "ETH breaking $10,000 in 2026." To be honest, it's not so much about how outrageous this target is, but more about the feeling of being led by the nose.

The underlying logic isn't complicated; it's just about using optimistic expectations to lure retail investors. As someone who has been observing the market long-term, I've noticed several recurring patterns—

**Pattern 1: Fake high prices followed by a sharp drop**

In the first half of 2026, we might see ETH pushed from a couple of thousand dollars to over 6,000, creating an atmosphere of "$10,000 is just around the corner." Retail investors see this spectacle and can't help but FOMO chase the highs. Then what happens? In the second half, there's a 30%-40% correction, dropping to around $3,500. At this point, retail investors either cut losses or hold onto their losses waiting for a rebound. By the end of the year, when prices actually rise, many will have run out of bullets.

**Pattern 2: Leverage liquidation harvesting**

Even more ruthless is the leverage game. Retail investors see the $10,000 prediction and start thinking about using 10x or 20x leverage to gamble. But institutions have already figured this out—they know at which price points retail will open positions, so they deliberately dump the price by 25%-30% around those levels to trigger liquidations. There was a case last year where a coin was predicted to hit $1,000; many retail traders opened leverage at $800, but institutions dumped it to $600, causing a cascade of liquidations. Later, the coin did reach $1,000, but those retail traders had already been forced out.

**Pattern 3: Patience and timing game**

The biggest difference between retail investors and institutions isn't necessarily the amount of capital but who can withstand volatility. The institutions' strategy is based on timing—first accumulating, then creating upward momentum to attract retail, then selling off, and finally accumulating again at lower levels. The entire process involves retail paying the "panic tax" and the "impatience tax."

The figure of $10,000 for ETH itself isn't a problem; the key is how you participate in it.