Earning Money Is Not About Guessing, But Following the "Certainty"

After five years of navigating the crypto market, I’ve learned a harsh truth: drawing more complex K-line charts doesn’t necessarily mean making more money than simply observing the real flow of funds. I’ve stayed up all night analyzing MACD, RSI, waiting for the “golden cross,” but ultimately, the profits gained in a bull market are wiped out during a bear market. It wasn’t until I abandoned the complicated prediction habits and adopted a “simple to the point of innocence” approach that my account grew from 8,000U to over 100,000U. The entire system revolves around three core principles. One, Abandon Signal Addiction – Follow the Smart Money Flow Indicators always react after large funds act. Once I realized that, my daily approach became very straightforward: Monitor on-chain data, observe large wallets and BTC/ETH transfer flows to see where the money is going.Projects with steady accumulation by big money: even if prices fluctuate short-term, I patiently buy gradually.Coins with sudden volume spikes but sideways price movement: discard immediately, likely a liquidity trap. Practical lesson: When BTC drops to a low price zone during a major correction, on-chain data shows many institutional wallets quietly accumulating. I follow suit, not perfectly timing the bottom, but patient enough to enjoy the strong rebound afterward. Two, Break Down Positions – Accept Slow Entry to Avoid Risks “All-in” is the fastest way to push your account into extreme risk. After costly lessons, I adhere to disciplined capital division: Divide total capital into multiple parts, avoiding putting too much into a single coin.A clear three-step process: test – confirm – protect profits.Enter small positions to probe; cut quickly if wrong.Only increase position size when the trend is clear.When profits are substantial, withdraw the principal, letting the gains run. Most importantly, avoid the “must recover” mentality. Admit mistakes, change direction. The market is still there; opportunities are never just once. Three, Go Against the Crowd – Act When the Market Is Fearful Most investors wait for “clear confirmation” before entering, resulting in buying during euphoric phases. I do the opposite: When the community is panicking, and the fear index is very low, I start buying in parts.Bad news floods in but prices don’t drop further: a sign of support from big money.Massive drops with no volume: stay calm and observe. Conversely, slow declines with increasing volume are signals to withdraw. Once, a DeFi project was hit by rumors causing a sharp drop, and social media was flooded with complaints. But development data remained positive, and the team kept updating regularly. I bought when everyone was most afraid, and weeks later, the price rebounded strongly. Final Mindset: Admit I Can’t Predict Exactly Don’t idolize short-term wins. Sustainable profits come from a good risk/reward ratio, not a high win rate. Turning off the screen is also a strategy. Fatigue, insomnia, bad emotions mean no trading. Hasty decisions often come at a high cost. Always keep notes and ask yourself: Why did I buy? Why did I sell? Avoid decisions based on “gut feeling that it’s about to rise.” Conclusion Crypto doesn’t have a holy grail. But simple, disciplined methods that follow the certainty tend to last longer than betting on luck. Follow the flow of funds, split positions, dare to act when the majority is fearful – sounds “stupid,” but it’s the long-term path. Those who have gone through many cycles understand one thing: surviving long enough is the greatest victory. Continuous learning, keeping a clear mind—that’s the most valuable asset in this market.