Oil price movements alone tell an incomplete story. The real market signal lies in diesel trends, which fundamentally drive global commerce and industrial activity.

Middle distillates—particularly diesel—face persistent structural tightness. Two critical factors constrain the market: limited refining capacity coming online and restricted export flows. This supply squeeze matters far beyond energy traders. For those tracking macro cycles and asset allocation, diesel availability directly impacts production costs, logistics expenses, and economic growth momentum. When refining capacity can't keep pace with demand and export bottlenecks persist, you're watching a genuine supply constraint play out—not temporary noise.