#通货膨胀 The level of disagreement within the Federal Reserve has exceeded expectations. The 9:3 voting result seems mainstream, but the reasons provided by the three dissenters are worth noting—persistent inflation risks and uncertainties surrounding the impact of tariffs—all point to a common signal: the room for monetary policy adjustments is shrinking.

Most concerning is the warning about stagflation risks. The lessons from the 1970s are still relevant; back then, Fed hesitation allowed high inflation to become entrenched, ultimately leading to significant costs. The current situation bears some similarities—while the labor market is cooling, price pressures remain stubborn, making policy decisions extremely fragile.

From an on-chain perspective, such policy uncertainty typically elevates volatility expectations. Powell will step down in May next year, and the upcoming three meetings will be critical windows. The dot plot only anticipates one rate cut by 2026, far below the market’s previous expectation of 55 basis points—this gap itself is a signal.

Key observation point: When will the true impact of tariffs on inflation be verified? If data continues to show sticky inflation, policy in the second half of next year may face greater constraints. This will have profound implications for the direction of risk assets and requires ongoing monitoring of Fed officials’ statements and wording changes.