Industry insiders have reached about 70% consensus and two major core disagreements regarding the crypto market in 2026. This forecast framework might help you clarify your positioning ideas.

**Almost a Certain Trend**

Let's look at the most certain part. The ETF market will experience explosive growth—more than 100 new products launched, with net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs possibly surpassing $50 billion, even penetrating ordinary people's 401k retirement accounts. In other words, the threshold for retail investors to allocate to crypto assets is being lowered to the minimum.

The encroachment of DEXs on CEXs is also unstoppable. By the end of 2026, DEXs may account for over 25% of spot trading. Low fees have become an irreversible trend, with leading exchanges betting big on their own public chains and DEX aggregators. The story of privacy coins is even more exciting—their market cap is expected to reach the $100 billion level. A well-known investor openly stated that privacy will become the strongest "on-chain moat"; whoever can solve this pain point will control user fate.

There is also the rise of hybrid finance. Wall Street has finally learned to settle on-chain—the public chain becomes the trust layer, while traditional finance handles compliance and customer onboarding. This model might be the only way for untrusting parties to exchange assets.

**Gray Area and Genuine Disagreements**

Of course, there are also uncertainties. The future of US crypto legislation is a 50/50 split, after all, midterm election year politics are involved. Discussions about the threat of quantum computing are heating up, but actions are slow—what worries people most is that if Bitcoin refuses to upgrade, it could become an easy target before 2030.

The real test for your trading decisions lies in these two major disagreements:

First is the outlook for certain large digital asset companies. Some say they will evolve into "block space dealers," some bet that at least five will go bankrupt, and others simply believe they are insignificant.

Second is the rhythm of the bull market cycle. The aggressive camp believes the four-year cycle is broken, and Bitcoin will break previous highs in the first half of 2026; the conservative camp insists this is a macro oscillation year, and Bitcoin will only fluctuate between $110,000 and $140,000 repeatedly.

**What the Market Is Really Saying**

This is the most interesting paradox: on one side, there are the "high-end" stories of ETFs, compliance, and institutionalization; on the other side, there are meme phenomena driven by extreme community enthusiasm and emotional celebrations. It may seem contradictory, but it’s not. This precisely indicates that the market is diverging—part of the capital is flowing into institutionalization, while another part is chasing the primal community power. Both lines are running, both have opportunities, and it depends on which side you want to stand on.