Radian Group Holds Steady: Institutional Money Shows Cautious Optimism Despite Revenue Headwinds

What’s Moving in RDN Stock?

On December 18, 2025, the research team at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods sustained their Market Perform stance on Radian Group (NYSE: RDN), signaling a neutral positioning in what remains a complex mortgage insurance landscape. While the overall tone isn’t bullish, the underlying data tells a more nuanced story.

The Price Target Opportunity

Analysts tracking Radian Group have set an average one-year price objective of $39.78 per share as of early December 2025. This consensus figure sits comfortably above the recent closing price of $36.98/share, implying approximately 7.57% upside potential based on current valuations. The price forecast range spans from a conservative $35.35 to an optimistic $47.25, reflecting divergent views on the company’s trajectory.

On the operational front, projections suggest Radian Group will generate $971 million in annual revenue—a notable 23.78% decline from prior periods. Non-GAAP EPS guidance comes in at 2.66, indicating modest profitability despite the top-line pressure.

Institutional Positioning: A Mixed Signals Story

The big money has been paying attention. A total of 750 funds and institutions maintain open positions in Radian Group, representing a net addition of 6 shareholders over the past quarter—a 0.81% increase. However, total institutional share count contracted by 3.18% to 158.184 million shares, suggesting selective profit-taking or rotation activity.

Large asset managers show varied conviction levels. The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) holds 6.618 million shares (4.88% ownership) with no quarterly changes, while LSV Asset Management trimmed its stake from 6.108 million to 5.975 million shares—a 2.22% reduction that coincided with a 7.20% portfolio reallocation away from RDN. Charles Schwab Investment Management basically flatlined its position at 5.896 million shares but reduced relative weighting by 7.14%. Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) cut holdings by 7.05% to 4.310 million shares, while the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) actually increased exposure by 6.86% to 4.253 million shares—bucking the broader retreat and suggesting some specialists still see value.

The Options Market Speaks

One bullish signal emerges from the derivatives space: RDN’s put/call ratio sits at 0.39, reflecting predominantly call buying activity and a more optimistic stance among options traders relative to traditional equity investors.

The Bottom Line on Radian

Radian Group—a mortgage insurance company providing coverage and risk management solutions to the residential lending market—faces structural headwinds from declining revenue but maintains analyst support at a “Market Perform” level. Institutions are trimming positions selectively rather than fleeing entirely, while options traders show modest bullish leanings. The 7.57% gap between current price and consensus targets offers a measured opportunity for those comfortable with the company’s defensive positioning within the financial services sector.