A review of the epic options settlement market trends in previous years: volatility significantly amplified, often leading to accelerated unilateral trends

On December 26, 2023, at 16:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin experienced the largest annual delivery in history worth 23.7 billion USD. Past seasonal deliveries and market performance are summarized as follows:

December 29, 2023 (Annual Major Delivery), nominal value approximately 11 billion USD, maximum pain point around 42,000 USD.
Before expiry: The market was in an extremely suppressed state, with prices ranging narrowly between 42,000 and 43,000 USD.
After expiry: The “cage” suppressing volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly broke out with increased volume in the following days, initiating a bullish trend towards 48,000 USD at the start of 2024.

March 29, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 15 billion USD, maximum pain point around 65,000 USD.
Before expiry: The market, influenced by Bitcoin halving expectations, oscillated between 60,000 and 70,000 USD with high volatility, active hedging causing short-term suppression.
After expiry: Gamma hedging was released, BTC rapidly broke upward, pushing the price above 70,000 USD just before halving, accelerating the bull market.

June 28, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 17 billion USD, maximum pain point around 60,000 USD.
Before expiry: The market entered a correction phase, with prices oscillating around 60,000 USD, increased selling pressure, and a clear gamma pinning effect.
After expiry: Short-term volatility expanded, BTC initially dipped then rebounded, but overall maintained a correction trend without an immediate strong rally.

September 27, 2024 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 18 billion USD, maximum pain point around 62,000 USD.
Before expiry: Influenced by Federal Reserve policies, prices ranged between 55,000 and 65,000 USD with moderate liquidity, and hedging compressed the range.
After expiry: Post-settlement volatility increased, BTC broke upward, benefiting from rate cut expectations, initiating a rebound towards 70,000 USD.

December 27, 2024 (Annual Major Delivery), nominal value approximately 19.8 billion USD, maximum pain point around 75,000 USD.
Before expiry: During the bull market peak, prices oscillated between 70,000 and 80,000 USD, call options were more prevalent, leading to weaker upward pressure, but holiday liquidity was thin.
After expiry: Hedging release continued the bull trend, with BTC quickly surpassing 80,000 USD, and year-end Christmas rally pushing prices higher.

March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 14 billion USD, maximum pain point around 85,000 USD.
Before expiry: Supported by regulatory positive news, prices oscillated between 80,000 and 90,000 USD, with optimistic sentiment but short-term downside risks, gamma provided a floor.
After expiry: Volatility expanded, BTC broke above 85,000 USD, initiating a strong rally towards 100,000 USD.

June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 14.5 billion USD, maximum pain point around 102,000 USD.
Before expiry: Market sentiment was mixed, with large price fluctuations.
After expiry: Short-term correction post-settlement, but overall upward trend persisted without extreme volatility.

August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), nominal value approximately 13.8-14.5 billion USD, maximum pain point around 116,000 USD.
Before expiry: Holiday liquidity was thin, prices oscillated around 110,000-120,000 USD, gamma trap effects intensified.
After expiry: BTC briefly dipped below the maximum pain point but quickly recovered, volatility increased but rebounded swiftly, continuing the bull market.

December 26, 2025 (Today’s Annual Major Delivery), nominal value approximately 23.6 billion USD, maximum pain point around 96,000 USD.
Before expiry: Due to Christmas holiday thin market liquidity combined with rising precious metal prices, Bitcoin traded narrowly between 85,000 and 90,000 USD, with gamma hedging strongly suppressing volatility.
After expiry: It is expected that the “cage” will disappear, market volatility will significantly increase, possibly breaking above the 90,000 USD range, with some analysts optimistic about approaching 100,000 USD or even initiating a new year rally.