Dogecoin Price Prediction: 350% Surge in 2024 as Triangle Pattern Reappears

Dogecoin continues to follow the crypto market’s weakness, but trader Alan Tardigrade has identified a key technical pattern: a descending triangle identical to the one that reappeared in 2024. After the pattern broke out at that time, Dogecoin surged from $0.10 to $0.45 within a few weeks, a 350% increase. Analysts predict that if history repeats, Dogecoin’s target price could reach $1.

The 2024 Dogecoin 350% Surge Pattern Is Repeating

(Source: Trading View)

Trader Alan Tardigrade’s technical analysis has attracted market attention, mainly because he found that the current Dogecoin chart closely resembles the pattern from early 2024. In early 2024, Dogecoin formed a classic descending triangle near $0.10, a pattern often seen as a bearish signal, as the lows kept rising while the highs were limited by a horizontal resistance line. However, when Dogecoin finally broke above this triangle, it triggered a explosive rally.

More importantly, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator was also showing a significant move at that time. OBV is an accumulation volume indicator used to measure buying and selling pressure. In early 2024, OBV broke below a key support zone, then began to rise rapidly after Dogecoin broke out of the triangle pattern. This quick reversal in OBV indicated large-scale capital inflow, confirming the validity of the breakout.

Tardigrade points out that the current Dogecoin is in a similar technical structure. The descending triangle has reappeared, and OBV is near a critical support level again. If this pattern repeats, Dogecoin’s price could rise from the current around $0.13 to $1, representing a potential gain of about 669%. This forecast is not baseless but based on rigorous technical analysis and historical data validation.

The rapid surge in 2024 was partly driven by renewed market enthusiasm for meme coins. At that time, Elon Musk’s multiple mentions of Dogecoin on social media, combined with technical breakthroughs, created a resonance between fundamental and technical factors. If similar catalysts appear in 2026, Dogecoin’s rise could accelerate even further.

Three Key Signals for a Breakout of the Descending Triangle

While the descending triangle is a classic technical pattern, not all such patterns break upward. To confirm whether Dogecoin can repeat the 2024 miracle, three key signals should be observed. First, the price must effectively break above the upper boundary of the triangle, accompanied by a significant increase in volume. The 2024 breakout was achieved with a surge in trading volume, indicating genuine buying interest.

Second, the OBV indicator must also reverse upward in tandem. A simple price breakout could be a false signal, but if OBV rises simultaneously, it suggests that capital is genuinely flowing in rather than out. Currently, OBV remains low, consistent with early 2024. Once OBV starts climbing, it will be a strong buy signal.

Third, a retest after the breakout is crucial. After the price breaks above the triangle, it often retraces to test the breakout level. If this level holds and forms a new support, the breakout’s validity will be greatly enhanced. In 2024, Dogecoin experienced a brief retest after breaking out but quickly continued higher.

Three Conditions for Dogecoin to Reach $1

Technical breakout confirmation: Price effectively breaks above the descending triangle’s upper boundary, with OBV rising to verify capital inflow

Significant volume increase: Volume at breakout must be at least twice the average daily volume, indicating genuine buying interest

Fundamental catalysts: Such as Musk mentions, new products launched on mainstream exchanges, or a market-wide revival of meme coins

Tardigrade’s analysis suggests that if these three conditions are met simultaneously, Dogecoin could reach $1 in the first quarter of 2026. This timeframe is similar to the 2024 rally cycle and aligns with seasonal patterns in the crypto market.

Short-term Risk Warning: 31% Downside Potential Cannot Be Ignored

(Source: Trading View)

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, Dogecoin faces significant short-term downside risks. The price just broke below the $0.13 support level, with the next support zone around $0.09 on the technical charts. This implies a short-term downside risk of about 31% from the current price. This short-term risk does not contradict the long-term bullish view; in fact, the 2024 rally also started after the price touched a key support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has failed to break above the 14-day moving average and the midline for several weeks. This indicates that the bears still dominate the price action, as negative momentum indicators remain high. Currently, RSI is below 50, a neutral level, showing that sellers still hold the upper hand. Only when RSI breaks above 50 and continues upward can a bullish reversal be confirmed.

Trading volume on Christmas Day dropped sharply, with CoinMarketCap data showing a 25% decline in Dogecoin’s trading volume, now accounting for only 3% of its circulating market cap. This low liquidity environment makes prices more susceptible to large orders, increasing volatility. For short-term traders, this is a high-risk period.

However, for long-term investors, a 31% decline might be a good entry point. If Dogecoin indeed falls near $0.09, it would offer a better risk-reward ratio. Assuming the $1 target is achieved, buying at $0.09 would yield a potential return of 1011%, far exceeding the 669% return from current levels.