Recently, gold has surged to $4,500 per ounce. Many people are asking whether this is the top or if it will continue to rise. An interesting perspective is: instead of obsessing over the specific price level, it's better to focus on key changes in the Federal Reserve and the US economy.

From a fundamental standpoint, the current gold price has already significantly deviated from valuation models, and there is indeed some bubble component in the short term. But this does not mean the bull market is over. The key is that the Fed's policies and the economy have not yet reached an inflection point. As long as these two factors remain unchanged, the upward logic for gold still holds.

There is a timeline worth paying attention to: around early 2026, US inflation may continue to rise, economic growth could marginally improve, and the Federal Reserve might start to slow down its rate cuts. During this phase, gold could face temporary suppression. But looking further ahead, in the second half of 2026, when a new Fed chair takes office and inflation begins to turn downward, the Fed might accelerate rate cuts again. In that case, gold would have new reasons to rise.

In other words, future gold prices won't move in a straight line upward but will fluctuate with the Fed and economic data. Because the silver market is smaller and less liquid, its price volatility will be more intense than gold.

So instead of predicting whether gold will reach 5000 or 6000, it's better to focus on when the Fed will truly change its policy direction. That will be the watershed for the long-term trend of precious metals.