📈 Market Analysis

Over the past 3 days, BTC has fluctuated between $86,418.2 and $90,586.3, with volatility around 4.7%, but the recovery has halted at $90,586.3 (the highest point in 3 days). Trading volume has dropped sharply, down 44% from the average level, RSI is at 43.3, and MACD plus moving averages indicate weak bullish momentum (up). The price is hovering near the middle Bollinger Band, signaling a wait-and-see attitude in the short term.

📄 News Focus

- VanEck Manager: BTC has the potential to recover strongly in 2026, noting that BTC this year has lagged behind gold and US stocks, but with improving liquidity, Bitcoin could demonstrate peak performance moving forward, supporting a long-term bullish narrative;
- The largest BTC options expiration in history is approaching—volatility could spike, with contracts worth $23.6 billion set to expire soon; market maker positions could amplify movements, and a drop to $80k-$82k may present short-term recovery opportunities$80k ;
- Messari: Market sentiment is disconnected from reality, as no fundamental industry crisis has emerged, yet sentiment has reached all-time lows, reflecting profound changes in capital structure and market participants;
- Polymarket: The probability of BTC dropping below (this month has decreased to 9%, indicating easing fears of a sharp decline;
- US crypto policies and global debt concerns remain key structural themes, with new regulation developments likely to influence long-term trends.

Market drivers remain diverse, with macro liquidity and institutional activity as key variables. The short-term focus is on the effects of options expiration.

🧐 Market Sentiment

- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 23 )Extreme Fear(, highlighting ongoing risk aversion and rising anxiety in the market.
- Strong disagreements among KOLs—some optimistic about institutional capital flows returning, others wary of outflows and regulatory uncertainty.
- No significant new capital on-chain; attention is focused on historic options expiration and downside risks, forming a cautious outlook.

✨ Key Points to Watch

- Will trading volume recover?: Sustained recovery requires increased volume; persistent weakness could keep prices within a certain range;
- Are on-chain funds flowing in or out?: Large inflows/outflows and whale )large holder movements will drive trends—closely monitor large transactions;
- Macro policy changes: Global liquidity, regulatory stance, and interest rate cut expectations are crucial for medium- to long-term trends;
- Will institutions continue to buy or reduce exposure?: ETF flows and large position shifts indicate changing market confidence;
- Is sentiment shifting from division to consensus?: Market unanimity is vital for potential reversals and sustained trends.

Overall, with increased volatility and pressured sentiment, market direction depends more on macro shifts and capital flow changes.