BTC four-year cycle remains valid! The harsh truth!

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has not been broken. This cycle continues to follow the recurring rhythm seen throughout history: lows—main upward wave—sharp fluctuations at highs—deep retracement—bottoming out, then moving into the next cycle.

The high point of this cycle is most likely already in or will appear in Q2–Q3 of 2025. This area resembles a cycle top zone rather than a trend continuation, and even if new highs are reached later, they are more likely to be repeated peaks rather than the start of a new main rally.

The low point of this cycle is most likely to occur in Q2–Q3 of 2026. Historically, it takes about 1 year from cycle high to low, with retracement depths typically between 55%–70%. Corresponding price ranges are likely concentrated between $40,000–$65,000, with extreme cases possibly dropping below $30,000, but the probability of falling back below $20,000 is very low.

From a longer-term perspective, the four-year cycle is a "low-to-low" cycle. If a new cycle bottom forms around mid-2026, the next true cycle high will appear in Q2–Q4 of 2029 (more likely Q3). Historically, cycle highs tend to occur 12–18 months after the halving, rather than in the halving year itself.

Overall judgment: The current stage is already in the early to mid-phase after this cycle's high; the next year will be characterized by high volatility and fluctuations. The truly comfortable long-term investment window is more likely to be between 2026 and 2029.