As of December 22, 2025, the short-term (1-2 weeks) bearish probability for TRUMP is high, the mid-term (1-3 months) is still mainly characterized by weak fluctuations, and the long-term (6-12 months) depends on policy expectations and the overall encryption market environment, currently lacking a clear strong bullish driver.

Core judgment and key basis

- Short-term bearish (probability about 80%): Current price about $5.14, 24-hour fall 1.85%; 4-hour MACD below the zero line, CMF slightly negative, RSI 40.67 neutral to bearish; key resistance at $5.96, support at $4.75-5.21, falling below $4.75 may accelerate the decline.
- Mid-term weak volatility: After a sustained crash from the historical high of $73.43, it has fallen 15.2% in the past month, significantly shrinking its market value; Trump's policy driving ability has weakened, turning the "Trump premium" into a "drag," and there are concerns about selling pressure in the future with plans to issue 800 million more coins over the next three years.
- Long-term uncertainty: If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in 2026, Bitcoin reaches new highs driving a market recovery, or if Trump's policies shift and strengthen "pro-encryption" statements, there may be a rebound; otherwise, the stagnation will continue.

Key Drivers and Risks

- Positive factors: The Trump family still has relevant interests, and policy/public opinion catalysis cannot be ruled out; the overall recovery of the encryption market may drive the sentiment repair of MEME coins.
- Bearish factors: Significant pressure from increased issuance (maximum supply of 1 billion, current circulation of 200 million); political expectations cooling, rising policy uncertainty; weakened correlation with the mainstream encryption market, difficult to gain traction from the sector.

Operation Reference

- Short-term: Mainly wait and see, only try to go long with a small position when breaking through the resistance at 5.96 USD and stabilizing, with a stop loss below 4.75 USD.
- Medium to long term: Avoid or take very small positions for speculation, and wait for resonant signals such as a slowdown in the pace of new issuance, clear policy expectations, and significant improvement in market sentiment.