The latest data is quite interesting—the US core PCE price index for September dropped to 2.8% year-over-year, which is lower than expected. More importantly, the job market is also starting to cool down. With these two signals together, the Fed officials can probably breathe a sigh of relief, as concerns about an inflation rebound have been temporarily eased quite a bit.

The market is now betting on a rate cut in December. But don’t just look at the surface—the real show is in the dot plot, which will reveal the direction of monetary policy for 2026. The US government has also started hinting at rate cuts recently, and with rumors that there may be changes at the Fed, expectations for easing are getting stronger.

However, don’t get too excited just yet. Silver ETFs have been reducing holdings recently, and liquidity is starting to dry up; in times like this, chasing highs is risky and you could get stuck. Before major decisions are announced, it’s safer to remain conservative.

From a technical perspective, gold is still showing a bullish trend on the four-hour chart. Keep an eye on the 4230 level above—it’s a tough resistance, and whether it can be broken will depend on trading volume.