Polymarket data: Probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December soars to 94%, with trading volume surpassing $260 million

[BlockBeats] Recently, the predictions on Polymarket regarding the Fed’s December FOMC meeting have exploded in popularity. Data shows that the market is almost unanimously expecting a 25 basis point rate cut—the probability for this option has soared to 94%, while the chance of keeping rates unchanged has dropped to just 6%.

What’s even more interesting is that there are actually people betting on an aggressive “direct 50 basis point cut.” Although the probability is only 1%, it shows that some do believe a surprise may happen.

The trading volume for this prediction has already surpassed $260 million, indicating strong conviction in this rate cut. The resonance between traditional finance and on-chain prediction markets, to some extent, also reflects the current market’s consensus expectations for the direction of monetary policy.