#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Ethereum's price action over the past hour is, to be honest, quite subtle.

Those closely watching the market should sense that $ETH is currently stuck in a rather awkward spot—right near the upper Bollinger Band at $3,197, which acts like an iron gate that bulls have tried and failed to break through several times. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at $3,115 is providing support, and the bears aren't daring to push down aggressively either. What's more crucial is that the MA90 is sitting at $3,167, almost identical to the current price. If this level is lost, the pullback could be deeper than expected.

There are a few technical details worth noting. The MA7 and MA90 are now tightly intertwined, and the EMA30 has flattened out. What does this usually mean? A directional breakout is imminent. On the MACD side, the DIF has already crossed below the DEA, and the histogram is turning negative, showing bearish sentiment is on the rise. But honestly, the major rebound from $2,718 hasn't truly broken down yet—only a fall below $3,115 would mark a complete trend reversal.

Let’s talk about some key price levels. $3,200 is a psychological barrier; if it can break above the previous high of $3,239 with volume, the upside opens up and $3,300 or even higher is possible. Conversely, if $3,115 is breached, don’t hesitate—reduce positions and manage risk first.

Don’t ignore the news front either. The Fed’s rate cut expectations are still brewing, which is a long-term positive for crypto, but in the short term, beware of the classic “sell the news” scenario when expectations are met. Also, after Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade, the market is now in a "results verification period," and Layer 2 activity data needs to be continuously monitored—if the L2 ecosystem doesn’t take off, ETH prices could lack sustained momentum.

On-chain data is sending mixed signals. Ethereum balances on exchanges are decreasing, which is usually bullish in the long term (as coins leaving exchanges reduces selling pressure); but the growth rate of staking has clearly slowed down recently, suggesting some potential short-term selling pressure may be building up.

So, how to operate? Here’s my take: if the price breaks above $3,197 and holds, you can consider adding to long positions, targeting the previous high at $3,239; but if it drops below $3,115, immediately reduce positions and watch to see if the trendline support holds. At this level, rather than guessing the direction, it’s better to let the market decide.