#美联储利率决议临近 The Federal Reserve's current interest rate decision, the market generally expects Powell to maintain a hawkish stance, but does not rule out signals of a future shift in tone. The mainstream prediction is that there will be no rate cut in January, and the market's real focus is on Powell's statements during the press conference—whether it is "temporarily holding steady" or "short-term no hope for a rate cut."
Specifically, authoritative institutions like Goldman Sachs and market analysts agree that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, with Powell and several voting members supporting a "wait-and-see" approach and maintaining a tough stance to curb inflation, mainly worried about inflation reigniting. If Powell emphasizes inflation pressures and policy autonomy during the meeting, it would be a standard hawkish signal, causing the market to dispel recent hopes for a quick rate cut, which is bearish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
However, there are subtle variables. Multiple foreign media analyses suggest that if Powell hints that "pause in rate cuts is only temporary" or "there is still room to loosen policy within 2026," it would signal a future shift towards dovish (loose) policy, immediately boosting market sentiment, and risk assets may rebound in the short term.
It is important to note that this meeting coincides with increased domestic political pressure in the U.S., such as the Trump administration's judicial investigations and key officials being replaced, making it more difficult for Powell to maintain a hawkish stance. However, it may also lead him to be more cautious in language to avoid excessive market volatility. Overall, the official tone leans more hawkish, but market attention is subtly shifting.
In the short term, market volatility cannot be ruled out; if the language is hawkish, assets like Bitcoin may come under pressure. If a rate cut window is signaled, the market could rebound quickly. Investors are advised to closely monitor the meeting statements, set risk protections, and respond rationally.
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