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Crypto Traders Lean Bearish as Bitcoin Hovers Above $26K; DOGE, XRP Dip Most Among Majors
While bitcoin is currently in a consolidation period, an analysis of past cycles suggests that gains can be expected after 2024’s halving event, one data firm said.
Bitcoin (BTC) watchers are learning Bearish in the short term term but expect prices to pick up once the anticipated halving event is complete in 2024, with expectations of a consolidation period until then.
The industry’s oldest asset saw a tepid weekend marked by price stability and low volumes, nearing the $26,000 level, losing 1.7% in the past 24 hours.
Major tokens such as XRP and dogecoin (DOGE) led declines, with drops of 4% in the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) fell 0.9%, outperforming the general market, as the CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based tracker of hundreds of tokens, slumped 1.1%.
Aptos's APT, Chainlink’s LINK and gaming platform ImmutableX’s IMX were the only tokens in the green, rising as much as 6% on various growth – And fack – catalysts.
Analysts at trading firm FxPro told CoinDesk in a note they remain bearish for the next few weeks, expecting prices to reach as low as $23,000 amid the general lack of interest in trading riskier assets and the absence of market-moving catalysts.
However, there’s still hope for bulls. On-chain data platform CryptoQuant published in a weekly note that bitcoin's recent price performance closely resembled past cycles, suggesting that the asset was “likely to remain in a consolidation phase until the 2024 halving event” but hinted at a “significant price increase after the halving.”
“This assessment is supported by various long-term valuation metrics, including logarithmic growth curves,” analysts at CryptoQuant wrote. “There’s also the realized cap of short-term user transactions (UTXOs), which indicates under-valuation and the absence of widespread retail speculation, reinforcing the potential for future price growth.” #BTC #dogecoin #xrp #coindesk# 𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙚𝙭𝙩 𝙗𝙪𝙡𝙡 𝙧𝙪𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨?
When we do a detailed analysis of the entire history of the crypto market, there are some interesting facts if the 4-year cycle would repeat itself:
1️⃣ The BTC bull run will start in November 2024.
Contrary to popular believe amongst some, is that the bull run actually only starts taking full effect only after the occurrence of the halving.
This doesn't mean the market hasn't reached its low already.
It actually has and bitcoin usually has already rebounded plenty of time before the halving.
Nonetheless, the FULL effect as many people look at a real bull run, usually doesn't happen many months after.
The prediction based on past events takes place in November 2024.
2️⃣ The price peak of BTC is expected to occur one year later in december 2025.
The bull cycle lasts for quite a while.
Usually started by the surge from bitcoin, followed by the surge in alts and an entire bullish market in general.
Almost 1 year and a halve later than the halving however bitcoin starts to peak including many of the altcoin market.
On average a FULL bullish environment lasts 1 year.
(a bull cycle in general lasts abit longer but the bullish environment many people look at as a true bull market lasts 1 year).
Taking from average historical data, this is to be expected around December 2025.
3️⃣ The lows of the bear market is expected to be reached at roughly the same time in late 2026.
There are many perspectives to call a market bottom or a cycle bottom.
While bitcoin could have bottomed, alts could definitely continue to do so for quite a while.
However for the sake of not looking at 1000+ different things we mostly look at bitcoin as a leader indicator.
And this "cycle low / bitcoin low" is expected to be reached in late 2026 based on previous historical data.
𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨
1️⃣ BTC $130 000 - $145 000
Some well known and experienced institutional analysts have made the following statement:
Due to factors including the impending halving and greater institutional interest, the price of Bitcoin would grow by 400% in two years.
The next peak is expected to be between $130,000 and $145,000.
This prediction also takes into account the diminishing effect every new bull cycle had on Bitcoin's price.
While bitcoin continues to break precious all time highs, due to the sheer market cap it can't multiply the same amount every time.
We've seen this evidence in the past already every single time.
Based on this we can expect roughly 400% running into 130-145k dollars.
Robert Kiyosaki and Max Keiser are two well-known figures who support BTC topping $100,000. Keiser predicts a peak of $220,000 owing to cultural factors and historical occurrences.
2️⃣ $175 000 - $200 000 is the peoples prediction.
Many pols have been taking in the past and the major consensus between retail crypto enthusiasts is a prediction of 175-200k dollars.
They expect the the bull run in 2024–2025 will be led by Bitcoin, with the halving igniting a fresh bull run and a spot ETF approval likely before the event.
This might cause businesses to swarm to Bitcoin, pushing up the price to 175-200k.
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It's crucial to keep in mind that that the next bull run may not occur at the same time and scale predicted here.
It would be overly optimistic to think the same events would happen at the same exact day and time.
An estimation is just is it says it is. An estimated prediction.
However we have seen that the 4-year cycle does have a strong reoccurrence in history.
And based on that these estimations may well not be far off from the truth.
While we must not look at the same exact day or time.
We can however use these estimations with a 1-3 month added difference on average to make decisions.
Based on cycle history, there's a lot of alpha to be learned here.
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