After Kalshi showed that Trump made statements about Iran, the impeachment likelihood rose by 28.3%

Prediction platform Kalshi data shows that due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent threatening remarks toward Iran, the market’s expectation of the likelihood that he will be impeached and removed from office has risen from 22.1% at the beginning of April to 28.3% as of the time of publication, reaching a recent high. Although the White House denied that it would take more extreme military measures, public opinion has become highly focused on the risks stemming from his rhetoric, and it has even prompted some conservative supporters to turn to proposing the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, seeking Trump’s removal from office on the grounds of endangering national security.

Prediction market data reflects that the percentage of Trump being impeached and removed from office reached 28.3%

According to trading data from prediction platform Kalshi, the likelihood of Trump being impeached and removed from office has shown fluctuations in a short period of time. Starting from 22.1% on April 1, 2026, it has climbed to 28.3% as of the time of publication, setting a recent high. In addition, regarding the probability that Trump will face his third impeachment (Impeached For A Third Time) during his current term before it ends in 2028, market traders put the figure as high as 72%. These data reflect that investors and market observers are on high alert about the political and economic consequences that the current U.S. president’s remarks may trigger. Prediction markets have translated the risk of political instability into concrete percentage indicators, showing that public perceptions of instability in the current political situation are increasing.

Trump’s extreme remarks about Iran drive up the likelihood of removal from office

Trump posted a series of threatening posts targeting Iran on the social platform Truth Social, which is seen as the main factor pushing up the impeachment probability. According to a report by The New York Times, Trump claimed that if he were unable to reach an agreement with Iran, he would take extreme military action, and even described that action as leading to the “end of all civilization.” His posts also mentioned ending a standoff lasting 47 years and vowed to attack Iran’s infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges. Such rhetoric involves not only military threats; some legal commentators have pointed out that if the related threats were carried out, it could raise controversy over potential violations of international law. This kind of high-pressure rhetoric has intensified tensions in the Middle East region and also subjected the legal legitimacy of the executive branch’s foreign policy to strict scrutiny by the judicial and legislative systems.

Vice President Vance hints at no exclusion of nuclear weapons? The White House clarifies afterward

In subsequent remarks to the public, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance appears to have further reinforced Trump’s position. His comments were interpreted by others as not ruling out the use of Nuclear Capabilities as a strategic option. In response to this highly controversial insinuation, The Hill said the White House immediately issued a statement to deny it and clarify that the government had not considered using nuclear weapons. However, there is an evident gap between the hard-line statements by the president and vice president and the clarifying statements issued by the White House staff team. This inconsistency in external messaging has raised concerns among some figures within the Republican Party and has also become a reference basis for evaluating whether the congressional opposition and legal experts should take constitutional action to impeach Trump.

Calls for removal under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution emerge

According to a report by The Daily Beast, calls to take constitutional action against Trump have, unusually, surfaced not only among his staunch supporters from the past, but also within his own previous base, including people such as former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, media figure Alex Jones, and Candace Owens. They have all publicly suggested that the Cabinet should consider invoking the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office.

Although The Hill reported that the White House denied considering the use of nuclear weapons, Trump and Vance’s remarks have sparked a wave of criticism in U.S. public opinion and have drawn attention even within the Republican Party. This shows that Trump’s recent comments have crossed the bottom line for some conservative figures. From shifts in the political scene to changes among the core base, discussions about Trump’s impeachment and removal from office have become a new focal point for observers of prediction market trading.

This article, as shown by Kalshi, first appeared on 鏈新聞 ABMedia at the earliest, after Trump’s remarks about Iran led to the impeachment probability rising to 28.3%.