A whale-led selloff is driving the Bitcoin market, and ETF institutional buy pressure is unable to turn the tide

CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency data platform, released a report on April 2 revealing that despite a rebound in Bitcoin spot ETF inflows and MicroStrategy’s continued large-scale accumulation, Bitcoin’s overall “apparent demand” as of the end of March was still negative, at around negative 63,000 BTC. The report points directly to the core issue: the sell-off volume from retail and other market participants is already enough to offset institutional incremental buying, and the entire market remains in a distribution phase.

The Market Significance of Negative “Apparent Demand”: Institutional Buying Is Fully Absorbed by Even Heavier Selling Pressure

“Apparent demand” is calculated as the difference between incremental market demand and miners’ incremental supply, measuring the net balance of overall supply and demand. A negative value means that not only are newly mined Bitcoins being continuously sold off, but existing holders are also reducing their holdings at the same time; when these two forces overlap, they create ongoing net supply excess.

This metric has continued to contract since the second half of November 2025, reaching negative 63,000 BTC by the end of March. Even if institutional buying by ETFs performs strongly in certain weeks, its size is still insufficient to cover the scale of selling by retail investors and other participants. CryptoQuant states with clarity: this round of apparent demand remains negative, not a temporary fluctuation, but a systemic confirmation that the market as a whole is still in a distribution phase.

The Full Distribution Path of “Whales”: From Hoarding to Accelerated Dispatch

CryptoQuant’s data outlines the behavioral evolution of the whale cohort in detail:

During the 2024 bull market: Whales accumulated about 200,000 BTC, becoming an important demand pillar driving the rally

In mid-2025: Whales began large-scale distribution, shifting from long-term net buyers to net sellers

In Q4 2025: The selling pace accelerated noticeably, creating sustained and growing supply pressure on the market

Current situation: The pace of buying by medium-sized investors has also slowed, weakening another layer of support that previously existed

The report cites historical patterns indicating: “Based on historical data, persistent negative hoarding by whales often coincides with periods of long-term weakness in prices. The current sell-off trend shows that this is still an important resistance structure.”

Weaker U.S. Demand and Potential Upside Bounce Catalysts

The Coinbase Premium index (measuring the price difference between Bitcoin on U.S. exchanges and offshore exchanges) has turned negative again, indicating that U.S. investors are currently no longer actively bidding up Bitcoin. The retreat in domestic demand is another quantitative confirmation of overall buying weakness.

However, CryptoQuant also points to a potential short-term positive catalyst: the easing of geopolitical tensions—especially the de-escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict—could become a trigger for a short-term Bitcoin rebound. The report says that “the easing of geopolitical tensions may become a positive catalyst in the short term and could trigger a wave of rebound price action,” but the condition for it to materialize is that macro conditions improve meaningfully, not just relying on a brief boost from geopolitical sentiment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Bitcoin “apparent demand,” and what does negative 63,000 BTC mean?

Apparent demand measures the excess or deficit of market incremental demand relative to miners’ incremental supply. Negative 63,000 BTC means that within the statistical period, the market’s incremental demand is insufficient to absorb all sell orders from all sources (miners’ incremental supply plus the sell-off from existing holders). Overall, there is an approximately 63,000 BTC net supply excess, resulting in ongoing, structural selling pressure.

Is whale selling the main driver behind Bitcoin’s current decline?

CryptoQuant’s data shows that whales turned into net sellers starting in mid-2025 and accelerated their sell-off in Q4, making it one of the core driving forces behind the market entering a distribution phase. However, downtrends are typically driven by multiple factors together, including macro interest-rate pressures, geopolitical shocks, and overall market sentiment. Whale selling is one of the quantifiable important structural variables among them.

With ETF institutional buying greatly increased, why is Bitcoin demand still negative?

Spot ETFs’ institutional buying is indeed increasing, but CryptoQuant data shows that the sell-off volume from retail investors and other market participants is larger—enough to fully offset the institutions’ incremental demand. In addition, there is capital rotation between ETFs (for example, Grayscale flowing into BlackRock). Some of the “increment” is actually the reallocation of existing crypto capital rather than entirely new market inflow. This makes the ETF numbers look better on the surface, but it contributes limited improvement to the actual supply-demand balance.