Paradigm secretly develops a prediction market terminal, targeting professional traders and market makers

Crypto venture investment firm Paradigm is secretly developing a prediction market trading terminal, led by partner Arjun Balaji since the end of 2025, and planned for professional traders and market makers. Multiple sources who requested anonymity disclosed the above plans to the media. Paradigm is also exploring the creation of an internal market-making department and working with researchers to study the feasibility of prediction market indices.

Trading Terminal Plan: Positioning, Design Direction, and Follow-on Products

According to sources, Paradigm’s prediction market trading terminal is positioned differently from consumer-grade platforms aimed at retail users. Instead, it targets the market of professional traders and market makers who need deep liquidity tools. Beyond the trading terminal itself, Paradigm is advancing its layout along multiple parallel paths:

Internal Market-Making Department: Two sources said the company had discussed whether to set up its own market-making business in prediction markets, but it has not been finalized yet

Prediction Market Index: Paradigm is collaborating with researchers to explore bundling multiple prediction market contracts into a tradable investment portfolio. The architecture is similar to the S&P 500 index, integrating the stocks of 500 companies into a single trackable index, to provide diversified market exposure tools for institutions

Data Infrastructure: The company has started collecting and integrating cross-platform prediction market data on a public dashboard to provide data support for later products

Sources emphasized that the terminal plan above does not “constitute a competitive relationship” with Kalshi, the platform where Paradigm is a primary investor. The two are separated in audience positioning and product level.

Paradigm’s Prediction Market Investment Footprint

Paradigm is Kalshi’s core institutional supporter and participated in three rounds of fundraising in March 2025. It also led a Kalshi funding round in December last year, when the valuation was $11 billion. Kalshi’s latest round of fundraising is at least $1 billion, and the company’s valuation has risen to $22 billion. Paradigm co-founder and managing partner Matt Huang serves as a member of Kalshi’s board of directors.

The competitive landscape in prediction markets is rapidly taking shape. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, major competitor Polymarket has also achieved explosive growth and is in talks to complete a new round of fundraising at an approximately $20 billion valuation. Prediction market traders can speculate on sports events, election outcomes, and even Bitcoin prices. Over the past year, this sector has quickly become one of the most closely watched industry directions in Silicon Valley.

Business Expansion: From Incubated Projects to Cross-Sector Transformation

Paradigm has a track record of successfully incubating its own projects. In 2024, the company’s CTO Georgios Konstantopoulos founded the crypto software development company Ithaca and served as CEO. Recently, Paradigm collaborated with fintech giant Stripe to launch Tempo, a high-speed blockchain designed specifically for stablecoins. In early March, it already had about 70 employees, led by Matt Huang.

Even more noteworthy is that Paradigm is raising up to $1.5 billion for a new fund, and its investment focus is no longer limited to digital assets—it will also extend to artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics technology. This is the most significant strategic shift since Paradigm’s founding, formally signaling its move from crypto-native venture capital into a multi-sector technology investment firm.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the prediction market terminal developed by Paradigm compete with Kalshi?

Based on explanations from sources, Paradigm’s trading terminal is aimed at professional traders and market makers, positioned as an institutional-grade tool; Kalshi mainly serves the retail prediction market demand of individual users. Sources said the two differ in audience level and do not constitute direct competition, but Paradigm’s spokesperson did not provide any official confirmation on this.

What is a prediction market index, and why is it attractive to institutional investors?

A prediction market index is a financial instrument that packages multiple prediction market contracts into a tradable investment portfolio, similar in design logic to the S&P 500 index. For institutional investors, products like this provide diversified market exposure and reduce concentrated risk from the outcome of a single event. This is a key piece of infrastructure in moving prediction markets from retail tools to an institutional asset class.

Why does Paradigm build a trading tool while investing in Kalshi?

The two have different business logics: investing in Kalshi is driven by financial returns, while developing a trading terminal is a strategic effort to secure a position in the prediction market infrastructure layer. As prediction market scale expands rapidly, providing institutional-grade trading infrastructure can open up an independent revenue model that does not rely on equity returns from the companies being invested in.