Are Trump’s expectations of an Iran war heating up after three weeks—are the catalysts for Bitcoin’s rise continuing to accumulate?

Gate News update: As Trump has raised expectations that a war with Iran could end within the next two to three weeks, global risk-asset sentiment has rebounded. Bitcoin has held strong in 2026, trading in a tight, strong range; the latest price is around $67,950. At the same time, Ethereum has risen to near $2,100, while Dogecoin and XRP have also edged higher in sync, with overall market risk appetite seeing some repair.

On the macro front, Asian equities have delivered their best single-day performance in months. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is up about 4%, and U.S. S&P 500 futures are also strengthening. The market is betting that the situation in the Middle East may ease, and news that the UAE may help restart the Strait of Hormuz has also alleviated concerns about energy supply. Although oil prices remain elevated, volatility has been moderating.

Compared with the sharp reactions in traditional markets, crypto asset price action has been relatively restrained. During this round of conflict, Bitcoin has continued to trade within a $65,000 to $73,000 range, showing stronger anti-volatility characteristics. This sideways structure contrasts with the high sensitivity seen in equities, suggesting that capital allocation in the crypto market is more tilted toward the medium- to long-term.

New developments at the institutional level have also become a potential driver. Morgan Stanley has been approved to launch a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, providing a new allocation channel for the roughly $6.2 trillion in assets it manages, which means traditional capital inflows are expanding further. In addition, the STRC preferred equity financing tool launched by Strategy is also continuing to provide leverage support for Bitcoin purchases.

Two Prime CEO Alex Blume said the current market has three major key variables: geopolitical conflict cooling, expansion of institutional capital inflows, and innovation in corporate financing tools. With these factors combining, they could push Bitcoin prices toward a more clearly defined direction in the second quarter.

However, the market is still waiting for more certain signals. Trump’s upcoming nationwide address may become an important watershed for short-term price action. If expectations for conflict easing are realized, risk assets may extend the rebound; if the situation flares up again, market volatility could rise once more.