Gate News reports that on March 19, according to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a address with 11 consecutive wins in Iran-related event predictions invested $40,000 in the event “Will the US and Iran cease fire before 4.15?” by buying “No.” Currently, the probability of “No” for this event is 80%.
Today, Trump warned Iran not to attack Qatar again, or the US will respond more strongly to Iranian assets. Sources say Trump is weighing further measures against Iran, and his administration is considering deploying an additional thousand US troops to the Middle East.
Based on this trader’s past trading profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event will actually happen; there are behaviors such as taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
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