Gate News reports that on March 13, a newly created account on Polymarket’s prediction market invested $20,000 to buy the “No” option on the prediction that “U.S. military will enter Iran before March 31.” The opening average price of this bet was $0.75, and the current probability of this event is 75%. The account address is 0x94a88422bca9af3db3045ddbe5f8f6d3be185204.
The Trump administration is currently employing a dual strategy: on one hand, repeatedly emphasizing that the war is nearing its end, describing joint airstrikes as a “significant military progress” and a “strategic victory” to cool down the situation and avoid ground wars in the Middle East, preventing runaway oil prices and worsening domestic inflation; on the other hand, Trump has issued threats of escalation, stating that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will retaliate “20 times harder.”
Although the Trump administration attempts to characterize the joint airstrikes as a “tactical success” and gradually withdraw, it has not shown firm resistance to deploying U.S. troops into Iranian territory, instead considering limited special forces operations. However, Washington faces immense pressure from Israel. After the earlier airstrikes severely damaged Iranian regime high-ranking officials, hardliners within Israel believe this is the only historic window to completely eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat. Since deeply buried high-level nuclear facilities are difficult to fully disable with existing bunker-busting munitions, Israel is lobbying and even pressuring the White House to have U.S. special forces conduct short-term ground infiltration or physical destruction missions to thoroughly eliminate remaining enriched uranium stocks and nuclear materials.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulators from prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity2h ago
Polymarket Trader Turns $500 Into $252K After UFC Makes Yet Another Scoring Error
In brief
A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks.
An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard.
The
Decrypt2h ago
Polymarket reviews and weeds out early-stage projects in its ecosystem, targeting insider trading and market manipulation behaviors
Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.
GateNews3h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona-regulated prediction markets and suspends prosecution against Kalshi.
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using the gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity5h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bars Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets, and pauses the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled to block Arizona from suing the prediction market platform Kalshi under its gambling laws, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi has insisted that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity8h ago
New Wallet Bets $40K on Trump Iran Ceasefire Announcement, Down 85%
Gate News message, a newly created wallet named "bullseye123" spent $40K betting that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 or April 18. The wallet holder is currently down $34K, representing an 85% loss on the position.
GateNews10h ago
