Gate News reports that on March 13, within the past 24 hours, an address that performed well in the Trump market invested $3,700 in the prediction market Polymarket, betting on the new position “The U.S. can escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz before April.” The opening average price was 31.3¢, now at 33.5¢.
The rules for this position require that by March 31, the U.S. government explicitly announces an escort operation, or authoritative media report that U.S. military has actually escorted commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The escort can be carried out by naval warships or designated accompanying/protecting air forces.
On March 12, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen stated that the U.S. Navy will “escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz when military conditions permit,” and that the operation may be conducted with an international coalition. The prerequisites include the U.S. first gaining sufficient air superiority and further weakening Iran’s missile capabilities. Yellen also mentioned that Iran and some Chinese oil tankers still pass through the strait, and the U.S. assesses that the strait has not been fully mined.
Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, but rather engaging in behaviors such as taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
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