Gate News: On March 11, in the Polymarket prediction market, a single account invested $5,800 to buy the option “Cryptocurrency Payment Card Total Transactions to Surpass $1.5 Billion by March 31.” Driven by this large single transaction, the probability of this event skyrocketed from 4% to 88% within an hour.
According to settlement rules, the data standard for this prediction market is based on the “total transactions of cryptocurrency payment cards” recorded by the PaymentScan platform. If, before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on March 31, the cumulative transaction amount shown on the chart reaches or exceeds $1.5 billion, the prediction market will settle as “Yes.”
The surge in funds and the rapid increase in probability are suspected to be caused by PaymentScan integrating data related to the RedotPay cryptocurrency payment card project into its statistics system. This new data source caused the recorded total transactions on the platform to jump from around $1 billion to $1.456 billion, approaching the $1.5 billion settlement threshold set by the prediction market.
The account address is: 0xe39783f92ee0985f1ab5fe514030f946825abfcb.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encouraging innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona from regulating prediction markets, and pause the prosecution against Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona cannot use its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity2h ago
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bars Arizona from regulating a prediction market and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from relying on its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity5h ago
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulators from prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity8h ago
Polymarket Trader Turns $500 Into $252K After UFC Makes Yet Another Scoring Error
In brief
A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks.
An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard.
The
Decrypt8h ago
Polymarket reviews and weeds out early-stage projects in its ecosystem, targeting insider trading and market manipulation behaviors
Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.
GateNews9h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona-regulated prediction markets and suspends prosecution against Kalshi.
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using the gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity11h ago
